base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 17.0% from MP; +1 VIX 16
Term structure: Term structure flat near term (87-90% IV) then rises; all well above normal
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Pinning ($+79.6M)
Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 57,164 (14.6% below spot)
OI concentrations: Put OI concentration at $100 (14.6% below spot); Call wall $130-$150; Put floor $62-$100
#1Call credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $120.00/$125.00 call spread
Sell $120/$125 call spread to collect premium, expecting spot below $120
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit or if spot nears $120; monitor pin risk
#2Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $110.00/$105.00 put wing and $120.00/$125.00 call wing
Sell 110/105 put and 120/125 call condor for premium, expecting range-bound price
Mgmt: Manage if spot breaches 110 or 120; adjust wings or close early
!Spot 17% above max pain, expect drift toward $100-$105
!2 days to expiry with high gamma – rapid IV contraction possible
!Positive dealer gamma (+$79.6M) may cap upside, but pin breakdown could accelerate