base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 24.4% from MP
Term structure: Steep, widening vol out to 35-42d (ATM 97.6% at 35d) — front-week 89.4% to 14d 89.8%, then rises into 35-42d
Spot vs MP: Above (Spot $102.00 vs Max Pain $82.00 for 2026-04-10; pre-computed: Spot vs MP: Above)
GEX regime: Pinning (Total GEX +$61.3M; concentrated +$8.2M at $110.00, +$7.6M at $105.00, +$4.9M at $115.00)
OI concentrations: Call OI wall 110-150 and near-term call clusters at $105 (23,419 OI), $110 (28,315 OI), $115 (22,817 OI); put floor concentrated at $70 (41,700 OI)
#1call spread
Sell 105/110 call spread 2026-04-24 (14 DTE)
High IV and concentrated GEX/Call OI at 105-110 make the upside a magnet; defined-risk spread keeps position size controlled while collecting rich call premium (105 call ≈ $3.60, 110 call ≈ $1.99 in the near-term chain — net ≈ $1.61).
Mgmt: Take profits at 50-65% of max credit; if spot > short strike $105.00 on an intraday close, consider rolling up/out; cut losses (buy to close) if underlying closes above $110.00 or if width loss exceeds 50% of max loss.
#2cash-secured put (CSP)
Sell $95.00 put 2026-04-24 (14 DTE)
Rich put premium at 95 with elevated IV; selling a 95 CSP collects ~ $3.95–$4.20 in a high-IV, pinning environment. Put OI is thinner near 95 vs deep put floor at $70, and flow is bullish, so downside assignment probability is reduced but acceptable for collectors willing to own shares at ~91.
Mgmt: Take profit at 50-75% of collected credit; if spot falls and tests $92-$93, consider rolling down 1-2 strikes and out 2-4 weeks; cut losses (buy to close) and reassess if price closes below $90.00 or if IV collapses >30% intra-cycle.
#3iron condor
Sell 95/90P + 110/115C 2026-04-24 (14 DTE)
High IV and tight expected move (1-week ±$10.10) make an IC with short strikes at the concentrated put/call levels efficient. The structure uses the 110/115 call OI magnet and a 95 put that still pays rich premium. Net risk is low relative to credit because wings are narrow (5-point wings).
Mgmt: Close at 50% of max profit; if either short strike is pierced intraday, hedge/roll that side out 1-2 weeks or flip to a vertical; cut losses if either short side is within 0.50-0.75 points at daily close.
#4put spread (bull put spread)
Sell 100/95 put spread 2026-04-24 (14 DTE)
Shorter-width defined-risk bullish put spread just below spot captures high put IV while being protected by nearby call-pin action. Use this instead of naked puts if you want defined risk while still favoring upside pinning.
Mgmt: Take profits at 50-70% of max credit; roll down-and-out if price tests the short 100 strike; cut losses if underlying closes below 95.00 or spread value exceeds 60% of max loss.
!Upcoming earnings on 2026-05-13 — avoid selling naked premium through earnings and close or reduce directional exposure before the report.
!Unusual large put flow at strikes $85-$86 (4/17 expirations) — institutional downside buying could accelerate tails; avoid oversized naked short puts below $90.
!Positive GEX (+$61.3M) creates strong pinning around 105/110; a sudden dealer de-risking or delta-bleed could trigger sharp moves if gamma exposure flips.
!Extremely high IV (Avg IV 93.5%) — while favorable for sellers, IV can violently reprice; use defined-risk spreads or tight management to avoid large assignment risk.
!P/C volume and OI skew: heavy call flow at $100-$120 and concentrated call OI 110-150 — short-call strategies must respect potential for fast upside squeezes into those walls.