base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (pinning +$53.1M); +1 high IV (Avg IV 92.9%); -1 spot 12.2% above MP (reduces short put comfort)
Term structure: Very steep near-term vol: 1d ATM 107.5%, 8d 85.4%, 15d 84.5% — front-end rich, use weekly/near-dated defined-risk when aggressive; 30-45D still elevated (36d ATM 93.2%).
Spot vs MP: Above by 12.2% (spot $92.00 vs MP $82.00 next expirations)
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$53.1M) — strong positive gamma exposure concentrated at nearby strikes (90, 95, 105)
Gamma flip: ~$70.00 — Gamma flip ~ $70 — below $70 dealers flip short-gamma into long-gamma, accelerating moves; well below current spot so not immediate but structural floor.
OI concentrations: Large put OI at $70 (42,320 OI) — long-term floor; call OI walls $100-$130 (significant resistance). Near-term GEX magnets: +$4.9M @ $90, +$3.5M @ $95, +$4.3M @ $105.
#1put spread
Sell 90 / Buy 85 put spread exp 2026-04-17 (8 DTE)
Short-dated defined-risk put spread captures very rich front-end vol (90 put mid ~5.05 on chain; 85 put mid ~1.89) while respecting dealer pin at $90 (+$4.9M GEX). High IV + pinning reduces realized vol vs implied.
Mgmt: Take profits at 50-65% of max credit collected; roll down and widen if price closes < $88.00 or if put spread < $1.00 remaining value; cut losses if stock closes below $85.00 or if spread trades >50% of max loss.
#2cash-secured put (naked put)
Sell 90 put exp 2026-05-15 (36 DTE)
36 DTE still shows very elevated IV (36d ATM 93.2%). Favorable for collecting premium and rolling into defined-risk if put tests. Use because flow is bullish and dealer pinning near $90 provides support.
Mgmt: Close or roll for credit at 40-60% of target profit; if price drops and fill-the-gap risk emerges, roll to a lower strike (+debit) or convert to 90/85 put spread when short put reaches ~30% ITM or price closes < $88.00.
#3call credit spread
Sell 100 / Buy 105 call spread exp 2026-05-15 (36 DTE)
Significant call OI wall at $100+ and strong call flow into $100-$130; selling a defined-risk call spread caps assignment risk while harvesting elevated IV and collecting from call-heavy flow. 36DTE offers balanced theta vs risk.
Mgmt: Take profits at 50% of max credit; if underlying rallies and short 100 is threatened (close > 99.00), consider rolling up-and-out or closing; cut losses if spread >50% of max loss.
#4iron condor
Sell 90P/85P and 100C/105C exp 2026-04-24 (15 DTE)
Shorter-dated condor captures front-end IV; uses 90 put magnet and 100 call wall to define range. Use only if able to manage quick moves — front-end IV is extreme (1d ATM 107.5%, 8d 85.4%).
Mgmt: Close at 40-50% of max credit within first half of life; if either short strike is tested, roll that side outward or convert to broken-wing; stop-loss: close if price trades beyond either breakeven on daily close.
#5calendar (buy long-dated / sell near-dated)
Buy 2026-05-15 95 call, sell 2026-04-17 95 call (calendar) — target 30-45 DTE spread
Term-structure: front-end IV rich vs 36d; short near-dated 95 calls (heavy call flow and GEX magnet at 95) into a longer call to collect decay. Use small size; favored if neutral-to-slightly-bullish.
Mgmt: Close short leg into >50% profit of calendar or if underlying moves >4% away from 95; roll long-dated if volatility collapses or before earnings (May 13).
!Max pain cluster and EM lower bounds at $82.00 (2026-04-10 / 4/17) — if price closes below $82 on any daily close, pin support breaks and credit positions should be tightened/closed.
!Front-end IV extremely elevated (1d ATM 107.5%, 8d 85.4%) — use weekly defined-risk for aggressive trades; avoid naked short-weeklies unless prepared to manage intraday gaps.
!Unusual near-dated call flow into $92/$99/$100 strikes (multiple entries in Unusual Activity) — signals institutional directional call buying; watch for squeezes that can stress short call positions.
!Gamma flip ~ $70 — structural dealer dynamics change far below spot; tail risk remains to the downside because put OI is concentrated at $70 (42,320 OI).
!Earnings on 2026-05-13 (in ~34 days) — do not hold naked short options unprotected through that date; close/adjust positions as earnings approaches.