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CRWD

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.Close $650.11EOD only

Max Pain

$557.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$16.93

2.6% from close

Price Gap

-92.61

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.96

Balanced positioning

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CRWD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

CRWD Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral with a slight bearish lean, caught between a near-term pin at $402 and a multi-week max pain ladder that drifts lower. Confidence: 4.5/10. Spot is pinned near the 2-day EM high, but net premium flow is bearish and the structural OI setup is heavy overhead.

Confidence:

4.5 / 10

Base 5; +1 for GEX-positive pinning; -1 for GEX/flow contradiction (bullish pin vs bearish premium); -0.5 for spot 3% below nearest max pain.

Supports: GEX +$2.9M (pinning), DEX +9.7M shares (dealer long delta), spot near 2-day EM high.
Conflicts: Net premium -$17.2M (bearish), massive structural call OI wall $420-$500, P/C volume ratio 0.98 (balanced).

📌Strong pinning near $390-$400 through Friday expiry.

🧱Massive $470/$500 call OI wall caps multi-month upside.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 54.1% — extremely high, favoring premium sellers if direction is neutral.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$2.9M — positive gamma pinning spot near $390-$400, strongest for 3/27 expiry.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Net premium -$17.2M with P/C vol 0.98 — mixed but net bearish, dominated by large put premium at far OTM strikes.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $390.41 below 3/27 MP $402.50 — pin gravity is upward for this week, but subsequent MP ladders lower.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder shows a persistent ~$385-$405 range across April/May expiries, and the structural call OI wall ($420-$500) is a multi-month feature. GEX sign is stable positive, supporting a range-bound thesis for weeks.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$381.08$399.74

Pinned by Friday expiry; break below $381.08 invalidates.

Next 1 week

$368.09$412.74

Post-Friday pin release; MP at $385 (4/2) and $390 (4/10) provide magnets.

Next 2 weeks

$361.31$419.51

MP at $400 (4/17) and $405 (4/24) offer upside targets, but structural call wall limits rallies.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $402 (2026-03-27); $385 (2026-04-02); $390 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $381.08/$399.74; 1w $368.09/$412.74

Support: $350.00 · $300.00 · $300.00

Resistance: $470.00 · $470.00 · $500.00

Gamma flip: ~$350.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,989

Structural: **Call OI wall $420-$500** is a massive multi-month cap. **Put floor $300-$350** provides distant but solid support. Gamma flip at ~$350 is far below, indicating dealer hedging is stabilizing above it.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+2.9M

DEX: +9.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$350 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,989)

NTM gamma: Positive GEX +$2.9M concentrated near spot — dealers are long gamma, suppressing volatility and pinning price. A move >$400 reduces their long gamma, allowing for quicker moves. A drop below $350 flips gamma negative, accelerating downside.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 54.1% — extremely elevated, implying rich premium. Selling volatility has statistical edge if direction is neutral.

Term structure: Humped: near-term (4/2) IV 41.5% < mid-term (4/10-5/15) ~46%. Steepening into April/May, then flat ~50% beyond June. No sharp earnings kink visible (next est. 6/9).

Skew: Far OTM puts ($600+) show 0% IV — likely data errors or illiquid. Real skew: OTM calls ($470+) trade ~90 vol, rich vs ATM. Opportunity: sell OTM call spreads against the OI wall.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$17.2M bearish; P/C vol 0.98 (balanced), P/C OI 0.86 (slight call bias in positioning).

Directional prints: $400C 4/17 vol 756 vs OI 2,118 — could be opening calls (bullish) or closing (bearish). Given net bearish premium, more likely closing/selling. $395P 4/2 vol 182 vs OI 102 (1.8x) — likely opening puts for near-term hedge.

Unusual: $630P 5/15 vol 249 at 0% IV — data anomaly or zero-premium risk reversal leg; ignore.

Risks & Catalysts

!Friday (4/2) expiry releases pin, potential for increased volatility.

!Gamma flip at ~$350 is a distant but critical breakdown level that would accelerate selling.

!Extremely high IV (54%) poses vol crush risk for long premium positions.

!Structural $470/$500 call OI wall acts as a firm ceiling on any sustained rally.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	N/A	Range-bound with heavy overhead resistance; better to sell premium against shares.
Short stock	Weak	N/A	Positive GEX pinning and DEX long delta oppose sustained downside near-term.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $420C 5/15 (45 DTE) for ~$5.00 est.	Capped upside if stock breaks through OI wall; shares could drift lower.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate	Sell $370/$365 put spread 5/15 (45 DTE), below key support and 1w EM low.	Break below $368 (1w EM low) threatens spread.
Long calls	Weak	N/A	High IV (54%) and call OI wall make long calls expensive with poor odds.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	$380/$375 put spread 4/10 (10 DTE) if bearish on pin break.	Pinning regime and positive GEX make sustained down moves difficult.
Iron condor	Moderate	$375P/$370P x $410C/$415C 5/15 (45 DTE), within 2w EM bounds.	VIX elevated, but GEX positive supports range. Edge is Moderate (GEX positive, VIX implied >28).
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy $400C 6/18 (79 DTE, IV 49.8%), sell $410C 4/17 (17 DTE, IV 44.4%) — reverse calendar, bullish drift.	Pin holds and short leg expires worthless; long leg retains earnings optionality.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $350C 1/15/27 (290 DTE, IV 50.1%), sell $410C 5/15 (45 DTE, IV 46.0%) against it.	Long-dated IV also high; capital intensive. Best for bullish investors wanting to finance a LEAPS.

Top Plays

Covered Call vs. OI Wall

Own stock, sell $420C 5/15 (45 DTE)

Capitalizes on high IV for premium, targets the structural OI wall as a natural exit, and aligns with a multi-week range-bound thesis. The 45 DTE allows time for the pin to resolve and for theta decay in a high-vol environment.

Credit: $4.50-$5.50

Max loss: Unlimited below stock purchase price

BE: Stock purchase price minus credit

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of credit; roll up/out if spot approaches $415. Close if spot breaks below $370.

Shareholders looking to generate income in a choppy market with defined upside cap.

Reverse Call Calendar

Buy $400C 6/18, sell $410C 4/17

Exploits the IV term structure (selling lower IV near-dated, buying higher IV longer-dated) for a bullish, time-positive trade. Benefits from pinning near $400 this week, with the long leg capturing potential drift toward later max pain levels ($405, $410) and the June earnings date.

Debit: $2.00-$3.00

Max loss: Debit paid

BE: Complex; optimal if spot near $410 at April expiry.

Mgmt: Close if short leg hits 80% max profit. Roll short leg if pin holds strongly at $400. Exit entire position if spot drops below $385.

Traders with a neutral-to-bullish bias seeking a volatility arbitrage play with positive theta.

Defined-Risk Put Spread

Sell $370/$365 put spread 5/15 (45 DTE)

A defined-risk way to collect premium in a pinning regime, placing short strike below key technical levels (1w EM low $368, put OI support $350). High IV provides attractive credit. The 45 DTE aligns with the multi-week range thesis, giving the pin time to work.

Credit: $0.90-$1.20

Max loss: $4.10

BE: $369.10

Mgmt: Close at 60-70% max profit. Exit if spot closes below $368 (1w EM low).

Traders comfortable with defined risk, looking for a bullish-to-neutral premium collection play.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rallies to tag $399.74 (2d EM high) and stalls → Sell $410/$415 call spread 4/10 (10 DTE) for a bearish bet against the EM boundary.

IFSpot breaks and holds below $381.08 (2d EM low) for 1 hour → Open a bear put spread: buy $380P / sell $375P 4/10 (10 DTE).

Exit Triggers

EXITVIX drops below 40 (vol crush) while spot is range-bound $385-$405 → Take profit on all short premium positions (iron condors, put spreads).

EXITSpot closes below $368.09 (1w EM low) → Exit all bullish/non-hedged positions (put spreads, calendars).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: multi-week range-bound action between $370-$420, pinned near-term. Invalidation: a sustained break below $368. The regime favors selling premium against the structural OI walls due to high IV and positive gamma. Top plays: 1) Covered calls for shareholders ($420C 5/15), 2) Reverse calendar for vol arb ($400C Jun/$410C Apr), 3) Put spread for defined-risk premium ($370/$365 May).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.