base 4; +1 high IV; +1 pinning regime; -0.5 moderate liquidity; -0 VIX not provided
Term structure: Humped at 2-10 DTE, elevated across curve (45-50%).
Spot vs MP: Spot $390.41 is 3.0% below nearest max pain ($402.50 for 3/27)
GEX regime: Pinning (Total GEX +$2.9M — mean-reverting)
Gamma flip: ~$350.00 — Below $350, negative gamma could accelerate moves lower.
OI concentrations: Major Put Wall: $350 (OI 2,989). Major Call Walls: $470 (OI 2,914), $500 (OI 2,346).
#1put spread
Sell $350/$340 Put Spread, exp 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
Sells at the major $350 put OI wall, which aligns with the gamma flip level. 45 DTE captures high IV while avoiding the earnings event in June. Provides a 15% buffer from spot.
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Exit entire position if CRWD closes below $350. Roll only if credit >0.50 can be collected for same/less risk.
#2iron condor
Sell $370/$365 Put Spread & $420/$425 Call Spread, exp 2026-04-24 (24 DTE)
Plays the expected pinning range between major OI strikes ($350P, $420C). Short strikes are outside the 10-day expected move ($355-$425). Defined risk suits the moderate liquidity.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Manage wings independently: roll tested side for credit if possible, otherwise close entire position.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $360 Put, exp 2026-05-01 (31 DTE)
For capital-secure sellers willing to own shares. Strikes below the $350 gamma flip for safety. Collects substantial premium (2.0%+ of strike) due to high IV. 31 DTE offers good theta decay.
Mgmt: Roll down/out for a net credit if tested, provided the new strike remains below $350. Close at 80% profit. Be prepared for assignment below $360.
#4call credit spread
Sell $420/$425 Call Spread, exp 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
Targets the $420 call OI wall (1,935 OI) which is 7.6% above spot. Short weekly expiration capitalizes on accelerated theta decay in a high-IV, pinning regime.
Mgmt: Close at 70% max profit. Exit if CRWD closes above $415. Do not hold through earnings.
!Earnings expected ~2026-06-09 (70+ days out). Close all short premium positions at least 1 week prior to avoid IV crush and event risk.
!Gamma flip at ~$350. A break below this level could lead to accelerated selling pressure, threatening all put credit positions.
!Moderate liquidity: Bid-ask spreads may be wide for multi-leg orders. Use limit orders and consider simpler spreads (rank 1 & 4).
!Large, far OTM put flow ($560-$750 strikes) indicates institutional hedging. While not a near-term directional signal, it suggests underlying volatility concerns.
!Spot is below nearest max pain ($402.50). While GEX is positive, this creates a mild upward pull that could challenge call credit spreads.