base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.6% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Term structure: Near-term put IV (129%) > call IV (83%); term structure relatively flat around 66-74% after 10 days.
Spot vs MP: Below
GEX regime: Pinning ($+6.7M)
Gamma flip: ~$125.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,515 (24.2% below spot)
OI concentrations: Max pain pins: $168 (6/26), $165 (7/2), $160 (7/10). Call OI wall $175-$240; put floor $90-$125.
#1Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-24 $155.00/$150.00 put wing and $175.00/$180.00 call wing
Sell OTM put and call wings to capture premium decay in range-bound market.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit or before earnings on 7/30.
#2Put credit spread
Sell 2026-08-21 $155.00/$150.00 put spread
Sell put spread to profit from elevated IV and support holding.
Mgmt: Exit if COIN breaks below invalidation level $144.96 or at 50% gain.
#3Short strangle
Sell 2026-07-24 $150.00 put + sell $180.00 call
Sell OTM put and call to collect maximum credit from elevated IV.
Mgmt: Adjust or close if spot approaches either strike; consider rolling.
!Gamma flip at $125 – break below could accelerate moves.
!High IV may contract quickly post-event.
!Spot below max pain – potential pinning resistance.