base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.1% from MP; +1 VIX 16
Term structure: Contango across tenors; back-month IV elevated, indicating longer-dated uncertainty
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Pinning ($+28.1M)
Gamma flip: ~$125.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,515 (26.2% below spot)
OI concentrations: Put floor $90-$125 (15.5k OI); Call wall $190-$250. Max pain $168 near current spot
#1Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $165.00/$160.00 put spread
Sell $165/$160 put spread on high IV with support at $167.
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below $167.50; aim for 50% max gain.
#2Iron condor
Sell 2026-08-21 $165.00/$160.00 put wing and $185.00/$190.00 call wing
Sell $165/$160 put and $185/$190 call wings outside support/resistance.
Mgmt: Manage if spot nears wings; exit early due to liquidity risk. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Volume below 5. Substitutions: short_put: resolved contract 2026-08-21 $167.50 missing; used 2026-08-21 $165.00.; long_put: resolved contract 2026-08-21 $162.50 missing; used 2026-08-21 $160.00.; short_call: resolved contract 2026-08-21 $187.50 missing; used 2026-08-21 $185.00.; long_call: resolved contract 2026-08-21 $192.50 missing; used 2026-08-21 $190.00.
!Gamma flip risk near $125 if spot drops sharply
!Earnings uncertainty (no specific date) elevates IV
!High put skew implies hedging demand, potential volatility expansion