base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.3% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Term structure: 1DTE 59%, 7DTE 69%, 15DTE 68% – short-term contango, longer-dated flat
Spot vs MP: At
GEX regime: Pinning ($+8.2M)
Gamma flip: ~$125.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,515 (22.1% below spot)
OI concentrations: Max pain: $160 (1DTE), $172 (7DTE), $170 (15DTE). Call OI wall $170-$200; Put floor $90-$125.
#1Iron condor
Sell 2026-06-18 $160.00/$157.50 put wing and $167.50/$170.00 call wing
Profits from spot staying between $157.50 and $167.50; limited risk with defined wings.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or before earnings if IV collapses; adjust wings if spot breaches $160 or $170.
#2Put credit spread
Sell 2026-06-18 $160.00/$157.50 put spread
Collects premium while betting spot stays above $160; defined risk if support breaks.
Mgmt: Exit near 50% profit; if spot drops below $162, consider rolling down or closing to avoid loss.
!Spot near $160 support may be tested; break below $160 invalidates thesis.
!High IV may decay rapidly if pin holds.
!Call wall at $170-$200 caps upside; put floor at $90-$125 supports downside.