Term structure: Near-term ATM IV ~68.5%; 8d call IV spikes to 180.8% (event risk). Back-month IV ~75%. Skew elevated.
Spot vs MP: Below
GEX regime: Trending ($-9.4M)
Gamma flip: ~$125.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,515 (18.8% below spot)
OI concentrations: Call wall $168-$190; Put floor $90-$125; Max pain pins: $160 (2d), $185 (8d), $170 (16d)
#1Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-02 $140.00/$130.00 put wing and $175.00/$190.00 call wing
Sells wings at defined range ($130-$175) to profit from spot staying within max pain boundaries.
Mgmt: Close if spot breaches $130 or $175; roll wings to adjust delta.
#2Put diagonal
Sell 2026-07-02 $145.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $165.00 put
Sells short-term put against long-term put to net credit with defined risk.
Mgmt: Exit if spot drops near $145 or if IV collapses; consider rolling short put.
#3Call diagonal
Sell 2026-07-02 $175.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $165.00 call
Sells front-month call to collect premium, buys back-month call for leverage.
Mgmt: Close if spot breaches $175 or if volatility drops sharply.
!Dealer gamma negative ($9.4M) amplifies moves
!Net premium -$81M, bearish flow
!Spot 3.8% from max pain, may drift toward it