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COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.Close $168.87EOD only
Max Pain
$155.00
Next expiry Jul 10, 2026
Expected Move
±$11.93
7.1% from close
Price Gap
-13.87
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
17
Low premium
P/C OI
0.89
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jul 6, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects COIN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 6, 2026 close
COIN Theta Report
Analysis based on market close May 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 22, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 26, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Short premium (strangles/ICs) post-event IV crush
Invalidation: Spot breaks EM guardrails or IV spikes further
Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -0.5 spot 3.9% from MP; +1 VIX 17

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV 81% vs VIX 17% – extreme premium
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front-end spike (0 DTE: 11% ATM, skew 117/182) due to earnings; contango after 7 DTE.

📊IV 5x VIX – elevated premium opportunity
📈Post-event contango favors short premium
⚠️Earnings on expiry – avoid 0 DTE positions

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-13.0M)

OI concentrations: Call wall $195-250, put floor $95-125, max pain $192

Verdict: Spot ~$173 below max pain; put floor far below – moderate pin risk, elevated gap risk on event day.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Iron condor
Sell 2026-06-26 $160.00/$145.00 put wing and $225.00/$250.00 call wing
Sell out-of-the-money put and call wings to capture IV crush.
Credit: $3.91-$4.79
Max loss: $20.21
BE: 155.21 / 229.79
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or before earnings; adjust wings if challenged.
#2
Short strangle
Sell 2026-07-17 $155.00 put + sell $240.00 call
Sell naked put and call to maximize theta decay.
Credit: $9.74-$11.91
Max loss: Unlimited
BE: 143.09 / 251.91
Mgmt: Roll wings if spot approaches strikes; avoid holding through earnings.

Risk Alerts

!Earnings event on expiry – extreme IV skew and gap risk.
!Dealer short gamma (-$13M) amplifies spot moves.
!Spot below max pain – potential pin to $192 if rally.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on May 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.