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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $32.96EOD only

Max Pain

$33.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.89

2.7% from close

Price Gap

+0.04

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.01

Balanced positioning

Consensus

6.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

CMG Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 2, 2026. A newer theta report is available for April 6, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Confidence:

6 / 10

base 5; +1 normal IV (49%); +0 spot at max pain; -1 trending GEX; +1 defined-risk spreads

IV Environment

IV Regime

Normal

IV vs VIX

IV 49.4% — normal for CMG

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Humped at 5/01 (54.0%), elevated in May expirations

💰IV ~50% provides solid premium for sellers

⚠️IV spike at 5/01 expiration — avoid naked short premium there

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At max pain $33.00 (spot $33.16)

GEX regime: Trending (GEX -$40.6M — pro-cyclical)

Gamma flip: ~$33.00 — Negative GEX amplifies moves in either direction — no pinning support

OI concentrations: Put walls: $33 (38K OI), $27.50 (36K OI), $28 (32K OI). Call wall: $40 (21K OI)

Verdict: Unfavorable — negative GEX suggests trending, not pinning. OI provides support/resistance levels.

Premium Opportunities

put spread

Sell $31/$28 put spread 4/24 (22 DTE)

22 DTE avoids earnings. Short strike ($31) is above the gamma flip and below spot. Long strike ($28) sits at major OI support (32K). Collecting IV ~40%.

Credit: $0.45-$0.60

Max loss: $2.40

BE: $30.50

Mgmt: Close at 65% profit. Exit if price closes below $30.50. Do not hold through earnings (4/29).

iron condor

Sell $30/$27.50P x $36/$38C 5/08 (36 DTE)

Wide expected move (±5.4%) provides room. Puts anchored at $27.50 OI fortress (36K). Calls below $40 call wall (21K). High IV (51.8%) on this expiration.

Credit: $0.85-$1.15

Max loss: $1.40

BE: 29.15/37.85

Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Manage tested leg if price breaches $30.50 or $35.50. Exit before earnings.

put spread

Sell $32/$30 put spread 5/15 (43 DTE)

45 DTE for optimal theta decay. Short strike ($32) near current price and max pain. Long strike ($30) above major OI cluster. Collecting high IV (52.4%).

Credit: $0.60-$0.80

Max loss: $1.40

BE: $31.30

Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Roll up and out if price approaches $31. Exit before earnings (4/29).

covered call

Sell $35 call 4/17 (15 DTE) against long stock

For existing shareholders. Strike is above max pain ($33) and near top of 15-day expected move ($35.25). Collect premium in normal IV environment.

Credit: $0.35-$0.50

Mgmt: Close at 80% profit. Roll up and out if price approaches $34.50. Be ready for assignment above $35.

Risk Alerts

!Earnings expected 4/29 — close all short premium positions before announcement

!Negative GEX (-$40.6M) indicates trending regime, not pinning — be prepared for directional moves

!Gamma flip ~$33 — negative GEX amplifies moves in either direction from here

!High IV in May expirations (5/01: 54%) suggests event risk — use defined risk

!Unusual put buying at $34 (4/24) and $34 (4/17) suggests bearish speculation near-term

!Max pain rising from $33 to $38 over time indicates upward pressure from options positioning

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.