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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $32.96EOD only

Max Pain

$33.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.89

2.7% from close

Price Gap

+0.04

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.01

Balanced positioning

Consensus

6.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

CMG Theta Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer theta report is available for April 6, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

7 / 10

base 5; +2 high IV (51%); +1 defined-risk spreads; -1 trending GEX; +0 adequate liquidity

IV Environment

IV Regime

High

IV vs VIX

IV 51% — elevated for large cap

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Humped at 5/01 (56.2%), elevated across curve

💰High IV (51%) provides excellent premium for sellers

⚠️IV term structure hump at 5/01 — avoid that expiration

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below max pain by 3.0% (spot $32.01 vs MP $33)

GEX regime: Trending (GEX -$50.5M — pro-cyclical)

Gamma flip: ~$28.00 — Below $28, negative GEX could accelerate moves lower

OI concentrations: Put walls: $33 (38K OI), $27.50 (36K OI), $28 (32K OI). Call wall: $40 (21K OI)

Verdict: Unfavorable — negative GEX suggests trending, not pinning. OI provides support/resistance levels.

Premium Opportunities

put spread

Sell $30/$27.50 put spread 4/17 (17 DTE)

High IV provides premium. Short strike sits above major $27.50 put wall (36K OI). 17 DTE avoids earnings. Below current spot but above gamma flip.

Credit: $0.40-$0.55

Max loss: $1.95

BE: $29.60

Mgmt: Close at 65% profit. Exit if price closes below $29.00. Do not hold through earnings.

iron condor

Sell $30/$27.50P x $35/$37.50C 4/24 (24 DTE)

Wide expected move (±8.3%) allows for room. Puts anchored at $27.50 OI support, calls below $37 OI resistance. Collecting high IV on both sides.

Credit: $0.70-$0.95

Max loss: $1.80

BE: 29.30/36.20

Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Manage leg at risk if tested. Exit entire position if price breaches $29 or $36.

put spread

Sell $31/$29 put spread 5/15 (45 DTE)

45 DTE for optimal theta decay. Short strike near current price, long strike above major $28 OI support. High IV (50.8%) provides premium.

Credit: $0.55-$0.75

Max loss: $1.45

BE: $30.45

Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Roll if price approaches $30. Exit before earnings (4/29).

covered call

Sell $34 call 4/17 (17 DTE) against long stock

For existing shareholders. Strike is above max pain ($33) and near top of 17-day expected move ($34.32). Collect premium in high IV environment.

Credit: $0.45-$0.65

Mgmt: Close at 80% profit. Roll up and out if price approaches $33.50. Be ready for assignment above $34.

Risk Alerts

!Earnings expected 4/29 — close all short premium positions before announcement

!Negative GEX (-$50.5M) indicates trending regime, not pinning — be prepared for directional moves

!Gamma flip ~$28 — below this level, downward moves could accelerate

!High IV (51%) can compress post-earnings — avoid selling premium too close to event

!Unusual call buying at $33 (4/24) and $34 (4/10) suggests some bullish speculation

!Max pain rising from $33 to $38 over time indicates upward pressure from options positioning

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.