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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $34.09EOD only
Max Pain
$34.00
Next expiry Apr 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.31
3.9% from close
Price Gap
-0.09
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
46
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.04
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Apr 10, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 10, 2026 close
CMG Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish with downside magnet to $33. Confidence: 7.5/10. GEX -$40.5M (trending), net premium -$6.2M, and spot above max pain $33 create a strong gravitational pull lower. Conflict: near-term GEX concentration at $35/$34 provides upward pinning pressure, but the overall regime favors selling.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +0.5 spot 1.5% from MP
Supports: GEX -$40.5M (accelerates downside), net premium -$6.2M (bearish flow), max pain $33 (pin magnet)
Conflicts: Near-term GEX +$4.5M at $35 creates upward pinning; P/C volume 0.83 shows some call volume
📊GEX -$40.5M accelerates moves away from spot
📉Net premium -$6.2M with P/C OI 1.06 indicates put-heavy positioning
📍Spot $33.50 above max pain $33 creates gravitational pull lower

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV 50.2% — high vol favors selling premium
Gamma Regime
Trending
GEX -$40.5M trending regime accelerates moves away from spot
Flow Regime
Mixed
Net premium -$6.2M with P/C OI 1.06 — put-heavy flow
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot $33.50 above MP $33 — gravity lower
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder rises from $33 to $38 over 12 expirations, GEX sign stable negative, flow regime consistent across expirations

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 weeks
$31.18$35.82
Max pain $33 dominates; >$35 invalidates due to GEX pin

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $33 (2026-04-10); $33 (2026-04-17); $37 (2026-04-24)
EM guardrails:
Support: $33.00 · $32.50 · $32.00
Resistance: $34.00 · $34.50 · $35.00
Gamma flip: ~$33.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 38,419 (1.5% below spot)
Structural: Call OI wall $40-$50 caps upside; put floor $28-$30 provides distant support

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-40.5M

DEX: +25.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$33 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 38,419 (1.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: Gamma flip ~$33; if spot moves +2% to $34.17, dealer hedging sells; if -2% to $32.83, dealer hedging buys

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 50.2% — high vol, no VIX comparison provided

Term structure: Humped — 4/10 47.2% > 4/17 42.2% > 5/1 58.1% (earnings pricing)

Skew: 5/1 IV 58.1% vs 4/24 42.3% — +15.8pt differential for calendar spreads

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$6.2M bearish; P/C vol 0.83, P/C OI 1.06

Directional prints: call 35.5 OTM 2026-04-10 — Vol 376 vs OI 103 (3.6x) — likely sold calls for premium call 35 OTM 2026-05-01 — Vol 1,831 vs OI 628 (2.9x) — likely sold calls ahead of earnings

Unusual: 59.8 put 17.5 OTM 2026-09-18 — Vol 200 vs OI 108 (1.9x) — far OTM put purchase for tail hedge

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $33 breaks support and accelerates downside
!Earnings 4/29 creates vol crush risk for short premium
!High IV 50.2% increases margin for short positions
!Near-term GEX pin at $35 could cause squeeze upward

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Long stockWeakAvoid — GEX negative and flow bearishDownside acceleration below $33
Short stockModerate-StrongSell shares at $33.50, target $33GEX pin at $35 causes squeeze
Covered callModerateOwn shares, sell $35 call 4/17Shares called away if >$35
Cash-secured put / put spreadModerate-StrongSell $33/$32 put spread 4/17Break below $32 max loss
Long callsWeakAvoid — high IV and bearish regimeVol crush and theta decay
Long puts / bear put spreadsModerate-StrongBuy $33/$32 put spread 4/17Pin at $33 causes max loss
Iron condorModerate$32/$31P x $35/$36C 4/17GEX negative breaks range
Calendar/diagonalModerate-StrongSell 5/1 $35 call (IV 58.1%), buy 4/24 $35 call (IV 42.3%) — regular calendarEarnings vol crush
PMCC / LEAPS diagonalModerateBuy 2027-03-19 $30 call, sell 4/17 $35 callHigh IV on long leg

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy $33/$32 put spread 4/17
Defined-risk bearish play targeting max pain $33 with GEX acceleration below
Debit: $0.40-$0.50
Max loss: $0.50
BE: $32.50
Mgmt: Take profit at 50% max profit if spot hits $32.50; cut if spot >$34
Traders expecting downside to $33 with defined risk
#2
Cash-Secured Put Spread
Sell $33/$32 put spread 4/17
Premium collection below gamma flip with max pain support at $33
Credit: $0.25-$0.35
Max loss: $0.65
BE: $32.65
Mgmt: Close at 60-70% max profit; roll if spot breaks $32
Premium sellers comfortable with risk to $32
#3
Regular Calendar Spread
Sell 5/1 $35 call (IV 58.1%), buy 4/24 $35 call (IV 42.3%)
Capitalizes on +15.8pt IV differential ahead of earnings; 30+ DTE improves theta decay edge versus weekly
Credit: $0.30-$0.50
Max loss: $1.50
BE: N/A — complex
Mgmt: Close after earnings vol crush; cut if IV term structure flattens
Vol traders exploiting earnings vol premium with defined risk

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFSpot tags $33.50 and holds 15 min → Sell $33/$32 put spread 4/17
IFSpot breaks below $33 → Buy $33/$32 put spread 4/17
Exit Triggers
EXITSpot >$35 → Exit all bearish positions
EXITSpot <$32 → Take profit on bear put spread

Tactical Summary

Bearish regime with downside magnet to max pain $33, invalidated above $35. Favor selling premium or defined-risk bearish spreads. Top plays: bear put spread for directional traders, put spread for premium sellers, calendar spread for vol traders. GEX -$40.5M accelerates moves away from spot.

Read the Directional analysis for CMG for 2026-04-06. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.