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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $32.80EOD only

Max Pain

$33.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.66

2.0% from close

Price Gap

+0.20

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.02

Balanced positioning

Consensus

6.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 21, 2026 close

CMG Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 22, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias for CMG as strong GEX/flow alignment, spot near max pain $33, and positive dealer delta support upside. Negative gamma (-$32.5M) may cause volatility, but test of $33 likely within 2 weeks.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5, +2 GEX/flow aligned, +1 spot 0.3% from MP, +1 VIX 16.7 low.

Supports: GEX/flow aligned, spot near MP, positive dealer delta, low VIX.
Conflicts: Negative GEX (-$32.5M) may cause sharp reversals; flow mixed.

📈GEX/flow strongly aligned, spot near MP

⚡Negative gamma $32.5M could amplify moves

🎯Next week max pain $33, spot ~$32.5

🔄Flow mixed, but overall delta positive

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal (VIX ~16.7), expected moves in line with range.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Trending regime; negative GEX (-$32.5M) can amplify directional moves via dealer hedging.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow; GEX/flow strongly aligned per confidence.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at $32.5, near max pain $33 for current expiry, suggesting pinning.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Trending gamma, negative GEX, positive dealer delta support multi-week bullish bias with resistance at $33 and $34.8.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$31.78$34.00

Support 31.78, resistance 34.00; test of $33 likely.

Next 2 weeks

$30.97$34.80

Resistance at $34.8; upside bias while above $32.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $33 (2026-05-22); $32 (2026-05-29); $33 (2026-06-05)

EM guardrails: 1w $31.78/$34.00

Support: $32.50 · $32.00 · $30.97

Resistance: $33.00 · $34.80

Gamma flip: ~$27.50 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 61,563 (16.4% below spot)

Structural: Max Pain: $33 (5/22), $32 (5/29), $33 (6/5). Guardrails: 1w $31.78/$34.00. Support: 32.5, 32.0, 30.97. Resistance: 33.0, 34.8. Gamma flip ~$27.5.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-32.5M

DEX: +22.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$28 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 61,563 (16.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX: -$32.5M (short gamma), DEX: +22.3M shares (long delta). Gamma flip at ~$28 (put OI concentration). Dealers positioned for increased volatility if spot moves.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: No direct ticker IV data; VIX at 16.7 indicates low vol environment. If CMG IV inline, options fairly priced.

Term structure: No term structure data; typical upward sloping in normal conditions.

Skew: No skew data; potential opportunity in buying calls on pullbacks given bullish thesis.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$5.28M with near-equal put/call volume (0.97) and OI (1.01) indicates slight bearish skew.

Directional prints: 33.5 put 32.5 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol 1666 vs OI 728 (2.3x), likely bought; bearish open interest suggests downside protection. 0 put 60.4 ITM 2026-12-18 — Vol 200 vs OI 116 (1.7x), likely bought; bearish long-dated put. 45.6 call 32.5 ITM 2026-09-18 — Vol 1061 vs OI 704 (1.5x), likely bought; bullish call on same strike as put, possibly a strangle.

Unusual: 33.5 put 32.5 OTM 2026-05-29 — High vol/OI on OTM put indicates bearish flow. 40.6 call 35.5 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol 306 vs OI 151 (2.0x), low premium $0.04, likely speculative call buying. 0 put 60.4 ITM 2026-12-18 — Unusual long-dated put activity, possibly hedging.

Risks & Catalysts

!Negative gamma may cause sharp reversals on stop triggers.

!Spot below $32 support invalidates bullish view.

!Flow mixed; dealer hedging could shift.

!VIX spike could derail outlook.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-18 $32.80/$34.00 call spread Why now: Positive dealer delta and GEX support near-term upside; use spread to limit cost	Negative gamma may reverse if spot drops below $32 support. Max loss is net debit.
Long call	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-18 $34.00 call Why now: Volatility is elevated; long call benefits from gamma if spot moves toward $33+	Time decay if spot stays flat; negative gamma can accelerate losses.

Top Plays

Defined-Risk Bull Spread

Buy 2026-06-18 $32.80/$34.00 call spread

Captures upside to $34 with defined risk, leveraging positive dealer delta and GEX.

Why this play: Balanced risk/reward with capped loss; suits near-term bullish view despite gamma risk.

Debit: $0.49-$0.59

Max loss: $0.59

BE: $33.39

Mgmt: Exit at 50% max gain; stop below $32.5.

Risk-averse traders.

Leveraged Upside Call

Buy 2026-06-18 $34.00 call

Directly profits from upside momentum; gamma accelerates gains if spot rises.

Why this play: Higher reward potential but more risk; suitable for aggressive traders.

Debit: $0.80-$0.97

Max loss: $0.97

BE: $34.97

Mgmt: Trail stop; partial profits above $33.50; invalid below $32.5.

Aggressive traders with high conviction.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot holds above $32.5 support and bounces, THEN enter bull call spread (buy 2026-06-18 $32.80/$34.00 call spread) at limit $0.50-$0.60. → Enter Bull call spread at $0.50-$0.60.

IFIF spot breaks above $33.0 resistance with volume, THEN enter long call (buy 2026-06-18 $34.00 call) at limit $0.85-$0.95. → Enter Long call at $0.85-$0.95.

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot closes below $32.5, THEN close all bullish positions immediately. → Close both bull call spread and long call.

EXITIF bull call spread reaches 50% of max gain (~$0.30), THEN take profit on spread. → Sell bull call spread.

EXITIF long call gains >100% ($1.70+), THEN take partial profits and trail stop. → Take 50% profits on long call; adjust stop to breakeven.

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias supported by positive dealer delta and spot near $33 max pain. Key support $32.5, resistance $33/$34.8. Negative gamma risk. Top plays: bull call spread (rank 1) for limited risk, long call (rank 2) for leveraged upside. Invalidate below $32.5. Manage exits at 50% gain or stop loss.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 22, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.