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CCL

Carnival CorporationClose $26.03EOD only
Max Pain
$25.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.07
4.1% from close
Price Gap
-0.53
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
11
Low premium
P/C OI
1.23
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CCL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
CCL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected in ~85 days (June 24). Current IV is elevated (58%), but the event is distant, creating a complex setup. The stock shows strong gamma pinning near $25, and historical data indicates a high beat rate with significant positive moves. The best strategy is a directional debit spread to capitalize on the historical upside bias while managing IV risk.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1 strong historical beat rate; +0.5 elevated IV; -0.5 gamma pinning risk
Most important: Gamma pinning at $25 and high OI at $24 put create a strong magnet; historical 100% EPS beat rate with large positive moves suggests directional bias.
📅Earnings is ~85 days out (6/24). Most strategies should be timed for entry 30-45 days prior.
🎯Stock is strongly pinned by gamma near $25. This suppresses volatility and is a headwind for breakout plays.
📈Historical EPS beat rate is 100% with sizable surprises. Strong directional bias up.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 58%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$3.7M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $-4.8M, P/C 0.70)
Spot vs MP
Above max pain by 3.5% (spot $25.88 vs MP $25)
Gamma flip: ~$24.00 — Below $24, dealers amplify moves due to put OI concentration

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-06-24 (85 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 6/18 (79d): ±$4.83 (18.6%)
  • 7/17 (108d): ±$5.78 (22.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Elevated near-term (59.5% for 4/02), decaying to ~51-54% in mid-term expirations post-earnings (June/July).

Crush estimate: ~5-8 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~50% range.

Skew: Puts slightly richer near-term (P/C OI 1.04), but call flow dominates premium (P/C Vol 0.70).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Data shows consistent EPS beats (+$0.09 to +$0.45). Historical price reaction strongly positive.

Directional bias: Strongly bullish post-earnings (gaps up inferred from beats).

Key Levels

1$24 gamma flip / major put OI wall
2$25 max pain / pin magnet
3$28 call OI wall
4EM 6/18: $21 - $30.5

Flow Highlights

Large net premium outflow at $43 PUT (-$6.7M) — likely a hedge or structured trade.

Not a near-term directional signal, but indicates institutional activity.

Heavy $25.50 CALL 4/02 buying (Vol 6,291 vs OI 2,556, IV 87.9%).

Short-dated upside bet, possibly a gamma scalp given pinning.

Unusual PUT volume in 4/10 $20.50, $21.50 strikes (8.1x, 4.3x OI).

Possible far OTM hedge or speculation on a sharp drop, though counter to historical trend.

Strategies

Bull Call Spread (Directional, Capitalizing on Beat Bias)
Buy $26 CALL / Sell $30 CALL exp 6/18
Max loss: Debit paid
Max gain: $4.00
BE: $26 + debit
Trigger: Enter 30-45 days before earnings (mid-May) if IV is not extreme (>60%).
Leverages historical upside bias, defined risk, lower cost than straddle, and targets the $30 call OI wall. Uses the 6/18 expiration which captures earnings.
Outperforms: Stock moves toward $30, EPS beat continues, IV expands into event.
Underperforms: Stock stays pinned at $25, misses earnings, IV crushes.
Short Iron Condor (Premium Sell, Betting on Pin)
Sell $22.5 PUT / Buy $20.5 PUT x Sell $28 CALL / Buy $30 CALL exp 6/18
Credit: $0.65-$0.85
Max loss: $1.35
Max gain: $0.85
BE: $23.35 - $27.65
Trigger: Enter 30-40 days before earnings, after a volatility spike.
Capitalizes on strong gamma pinning at $25 and wide expected move ($4.83). Wings placed outside typical post-earnings range based on historical moves. High IV provides attractive credit.
Outperforms: Stock stays pinned between $24-$28, IV crushes post-earnings.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond breakevens, especially below $23.35.
Long Straddle (Volatility / Breakout)
Buy $26 straddle exp 6/18
Max loss: Debit paid
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $26 ± debit
Trigger: Enter 2-3 weeks before earnings if IV is below 55% (buying relatively cheap vol).
Historical beats suggest potential for large moves. Current elevated IV is a headwind, but a dip in IV before entry could make this viable. High risk of pinning and crush.
Outperforms: Stock moves >±$5 (exceeds EM), IV expands.
Underperforms: Stock pins at $25-$26, IV crushes significantly.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: Historical bias is up, but a miss could break the $24 gamma flip level, triggering accelerated selling.
!IV crush: Significant (~5-8 vol pts) expected post-earnings, detrimental to long premium strategies.
!Liquidity: Adequate OI and strikes, but not ultra-liquid like mega-caps. Mind the bid/ask.
!Sizing: Keep positions small due to pinning risk and binary earnings outcome.

What to Watch

?Spot price behavior relative to $25 max pain and $24 gamma flip.
?IV trajectory in the June/July expirations as earnings approaches.
?Any unusual flow in the $28-$30 call zone or $20-$24 put zone.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.