thetaOwl
HomeOptionsBKNGReports

BKNG

Booking Holdings Inc. Common StClose $168.37EOD only
Max Pain
$157.50
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.35
2.6% from close
Price Gap
-10.87
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
16
Low premium
P/C OI
0.83
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: May 27, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects BKNG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 27, 2026 close
BKNG Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 10, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 10, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

View latest report

Earnings Verdict

High-IV, pinning regime with dealers long gamma (GEX +$14.2M) and a gamma flip near $172. Best strategy is a calibrated premium sale or defined-risk downside skew play into the upcoming earnings window; the primary risk is a >EM directional gap (gap risk) that overwhelms pinning and causes outsized losses or early assignment on short deltas.

Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5.5 (pre-computed): +1 pinning/GEX positive; -1 mixed flow/GEX contradiction; +0.5 spot 1.8% above MP
Most important: Watch IV term-structure and ATM IV for the 2026-04-17 expiry (ATM 64.7%) — that knee sets the probable crush magnitude and pricing for short premium trades.
📈ATM IV 4/17 = 64.7% vs 4/24 = 48.9% → implies ~15 vol-point front-week crush
🧲Dealer gamma flip ≈ $172 and large call OI at $170 (37,764) support near-term pinning into $170-$174

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$172.00 — Put OI concentration ~10,375 (~0.8% below spot) places the gamma flip near $172; below this level dealers flip to amplifying moves

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-28 (TBD) (18 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-17 (7d): :
  • 2026-04-17 (7d):
  • 2026-04-17 (7d): ±$8.05 (4.6%) [$165.41 - $181.51]
  • 2026-04-24 (14d): ±$5.90 (3.4%) [$167.56 - $179.36]

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp short-dated knee: 2026-04-17 ATM 64.7% vs 2026-04-24 ATM 48.9% — clear earnings front-week pricing.

Crush estimate: ~15 vol pts (ATM 64.7% down toward 48.9% over 1 week) — expect a large IV snap-down post-release if no major guidance surprise.

Skew: Puts are slightly richer at some strikes (notable ITM put IVs >70% in deeper strikes) but skew is mixed; calls have heavy long-dated OI to the upside ($188+).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 recent quarters reported EPS >= est)

Avg move vs expected: Not provided (historical move magnitudes not listed)

Directional bias: Lean positive (recent EPS beats and several gap-ups in reporting periods)

Key Levels

1$170.00
2$172.00
3$165.41
4$180.00
5$184.00
6$188.00
7EM: $165.41-$181.51

Flow Highlights

Unusual put activity: BKNG260417P00182000 ($182 put exp 4/17) Vol=426 OI=171 IV=70.4% Last=$9.97

Large short-dated ITM put flow sizing suggests directional protection or a bearish bet concentrated ~5% above spot; could pressure the $182-$180 area into expiry if positions are delta-hedged.

Top open interest at $170 CALL OI=37,764 (large concentration)

Unusual call OI at $170 combined with nearby put OI clusters and positive total GEX (+$14.2M) supports pinning pressure toward the $170-$172 area ahead of expiries.

Strategies

Short iron condor (defined-risk premium sale)
Sell 2026-04-17 170/176 put spread and sell 2026-04-17 180/184 call spread
Credit: $2.50-$3.50
Max loss: $6.50
Max gain: $3.50
BE: Lower: 167.50 / Upper: 183.50
Trigger: Enter 3-5 days before 4/17 if IV remains elevated (ATM ~64.7%) and bid/ask spreads are normal
Pinning regime, positive GEX, and elevated short-dated IV make defined-risk premium selling attractive; strikes sit just inside/near EM so you collect elevated premium and benefit from IV crush.
Outperforms: BKNG stays inside the 1-week EM [$165.41-$181.51] and IV compresses toward 49%
Underperforms: Stock gaps >EM rails on either side or large directional flow (e.g., continued heavy $182 puts) drives a pin-bust move
Long straddle (pure volatility play)
Buy 2026-04-17 174 straddle (use available 173/174/174 strikes; prefer 174 midpoint liquidity) — buy ATM straddle
Debit: $8.00-$10.50
Max loss: $10.50
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Approx: 165.50 / 183.50 (depending on paid premium)
Trigger: Enter 1 day before earnings if IV has not ripped higher and you expect a >EM move; size small given IV crush risk
Very high ATM IV (64.7%) and history of beats can produce big gaps; this captures large moves but pays full IV crush risk.
Outperforms: Actual post-earnings move exceeds the 7d EM ±$8.05 and IV retains some premium into move
Underperforms: Stock pins inside $170-$176 and IV collapses sharply back to ~49%
Bull call spread (directional, limited risk)
Buy 2026-04-17 174-180 call spread
Debit: $1.80-$3.50
Max loss: $3.50
Max gain: $2.50
BE: $176.80
Trigger: Enter day(s) before earnings if you have a bullish thesis or see continued buy flow into 180-184 calls
Defined-risk, concentrated upside exposure leverages call OI concentration near 180 and reduces cost relative to outright calls or straddle.
Outperforms: Stock gaps and finishes above ~179-180 (breakeven ~176.8 depending on fill), capturing upside while limiting IV decay exposure
Underperforms: Stock stays flat or pins below 174 or IV crush reduces spread value

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: The 7d EM is ±$8.05 (4.6%); guidance or surprise can produce larger gaps that blow past iron-condor wings.
!IV crush impact: Short-dated ATM IV is 64.7% (4/17) collapsing toward ~48.9% on 4/24 — large IV snap-down (~15 vol pts) will punish long vol and benefit short premium sellers.
!Liquidity & spreads: Some strikes show thin markets (many zero-bid listings in deeper strikes). Favor liquid strikes (172, 174, 176, 180) and confirm real-time bids.
!Sizing: Given high IV and possible outsized single-day moves, keep short premium positions limited (small notional) or use defined-risk structures to avoid assignment/gap blowouts.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory for 2026-04-17 (ATM 64.7%) — a run-up reduces premium-sale attractiveness.
?Large block flow or sweeps around $180-$184 (notable $182 put flow already observed).
?Dealer gamma flip at ~$172; sustained price action below that can flip dealer behavior to amplifying moves.
?Max pain pins trend: near-term pins $170→$176 — monitor OI roll between expiries.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 10, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.