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BAC

Bank of America CorporationClose $50.70EOD only
Max Pain
$50.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.03
2.0% from close
Price Gap
-0.20
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
0
Low premium
P/C OI
1.26
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects BAC options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
BAC Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 2, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for April 17, 2026.

View latest report

Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 4/15. IV shows a sharp term structure kink at the 4/17 expiration (36.5% vs 26.1% pre), confirming earnings pricing. Expected move is ±$2.92 (5.9%). Strong gamma pinning (+$266M GEX), bullish flow, and a perfect historical EPS beat rate favor premium-selling strategies with a bullish bias.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +1 strong gamma pinning; +1 clear earnings IV kink; +0.5 bullish flow; -0.5 low volume vs. liquid symbols
Most important: IV term structure kink at 4/17 (36.5% vs 26.1% 4/10) confirms earnings pricing. Massive gamma pinning (+$266M GEX) strongly favors range-bound action and selling premium.
🎯Earnings date inferred from IV kink at 4/17 expiration. Confirm via company IR.
📈100% EPS beat rate last 4 quarters supports bullish bias.
⚖️Gamma pinning strength INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY from prior report (GEX +$266M vs +$59M). This strongly favors selling premium.
💰Bullish flow INCREASED (net prem +$4.0M vs +$3.0M), reinforcing positive sentiment.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal (IV 33%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$266.2M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Bullish (net prem +$4.0M, P/C 0.73)
Spot vs MP
Above max pain by 2.9% (spot $49.38 vs MP $48)
Gamma flip: ~$35.00 — Estimated ~$35 based on put OI concentration. Spot well above, strongly supporting pinning.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-15 (13 days)inferred (IV kink at 4/17, 2 days post-estimated date)

Expected moves:

  • 4/17 (15d): ±$2.92 (5.9%)
  • 4/10 (8d): ±$1.59 (3.2%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 4/17 expiration (36.5% IV) vs. 26.1% on 4/10 and 35.3% on 4/24. Earnings volatility is isolated.

Crush estimate: ~6-9 vol pts, back to ~30% post-earnings

Skew: P/C OI ratio of 1.12 shows more put OI, but P/C volume of 0.73 and bullish net premium (+$4M) indicate stronger call buying interest.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient data for direct move comparison, but consistent EPS beats suggest positive bias.

Directional bias: Consistent EPS beats (last 4 quarters) suggest potential for positive reaction.

Key Levels

1$48 max pain (near-term)
2$35 gamma flip estimate
3$47/$50 major OI strikes (PUT/CALL)
4EM 4/17: $46.5 - $52.5

Flow Highlights

Heavy bullish premium flow in OTM calls: $37C (+$799,910), $41C (+$426,800), $48.5C (+$732,540).

Large, bullish positioning for a move higher, potentially hedging or outright speculation, aligning with net premium flow.

Unusual volume in $50.50C 4/10 (8,245 vol vs 756 OI) and $51.50C 4/10 (7,908 vol vs 1,181 OI).

Traders targeting immediate upside through and post-earnings, reinforcing bullish sentiment.

Strategies

Short Iron Condor (Premium Harvest)
Sell $47 PUT / Buy $46 PUT | Sell $51 CALL / Buy $52 CALL | Exp 4/17
Credit: $0.40-$0.55
Max loss: $0.60
Max gain: $0.45
BE: $47.40
Trigger: Enter 3-5 days before estimated earnings date (4/15).
Capitalizes on elevated IV at 4/17 expiration, expected IV crush, and the extremely strong gamma pinning regime (+$266M GEX) which favors range-bound action. Wings placed just outside the 15-day expected move (±$2.92).
Outperforms: Stock stays between $47.40 and $50.60 (within ~3.2% of spot). Gamma pinning contains price.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond short strikes ($47 or $51).
Bull Call Spread (Directional Upside)
Buy $49.5 CALL / Sell $52 CALL | Exp 4/17
Max loss: $1.10
Max gain: $1.40
BE: $50.60
Trigger: On any pullback toward $48 support ahead of earnings.
Leverages perfect historical EPS beat rate, bullish flow (P/C 0.73, +$4M net prem), and call OI walls at $50/$52.50. Defined risk for a directional earnings play into strength.
Outperforms: Stock moves above $50.60 post-earnings, targeting $52.
Underperforms: Stock fails to rally or sells off post-earnings.
Put Credit Spread (Defined Risk Bullish)
Sell $47 PUT / Buy $46 PUT | Exp 4/17
Credit: $0.25-$0.35
Max loss: $0.75
Max gain: $0.30
BE: $46.75
Trigger: Enter on strength, holding above $49.
Simpler than a condor, focusing on the strong put support at $47 (high OI) and the bullish regime. Benefits from IV crush and pinning. Lower probability but higher defined reward than a naked put.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $47.
Underperforms: Stock breaks down below $47.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: Expected move is ±5.9% (15-day). Massive gamma pinning may suppress the immediate move, but guidance or macro news could cause a larger gap.
!IV Crush: ~6-9 vol point drop expected post-earnings. This significantly hurts long premium strategies.
!Liquidity: Good (2.2M+ OI), but daily volume (151K) is low compared to mega-caps. Slippage possible in wide-wing condors.
!Sizing: Use reduced size due to earnings binary event risk. Favor defined-risk spreads over naked positions.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory for the 4/17 expiration into the event.
?Spot price behavior relative to $48 max pain and $47/$50 OI clusters.
?Any news or sector sentiment affecting financials ahead of earnings.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.