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BAC

Bank of America CorporationClose $50.70EOD only
Max Pain
$50.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.03
2.0% from close
Price Gap
-0.20
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
0
Low premium
P/C OI
1.26
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects BAC options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
BAC Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for April 17, 2026.

View latest report

Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 4/15. IV shows a clear term structure kink at the 4/17 expiration (37.5% vs ~31% nearby), confirming earnings pricing. Expected move is ±4.1% ($1.99). Strong gamma pinning and bullish flow suggest a contained move, favoring premium-selling strategies.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1 strong gamma pinning; +0.5 bullish flow; -0.5 low volume vs. liquid symbols
Most important: IV term structure kink at 4/17 (37.5% vs 30.7% 4/10) confirms earnings pricing. Strong gamma pinning regime (+$59.3M GEX) suggests mean-reverting price action.
🎯Earnings date inferred from IV kink at 4/17 expiration. Confirm via company IR.
📊100% EPS beat rate last 4 quarters supports bullish bias.
⚖️Strong gamma pinning (+$59.3M GEX) favors selling premium (condor) over buying (straddle).

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal (IV 33%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$59.3M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Bullish (net prem +$3.0M, P/C 0.70)
Spot vs MP
Above max pain by 1.6% (spot $48.75 vs MP $48)
Gamma flip: ~$35.00 — Estimated ~$35 based on put OI concentration. Spot well above, supporting pinning.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-15 (15 days)inferred (IV kink at 4/17, 2 days post-estimated date)

Expected moves:

  • 4/17 (17d): ±$3.14 (6.4%)
  • 4/10 (10d): ±$1.99 (4.1%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 4/17 expiration (37.5% IV) vs. 30.7% on 4/10 and 34.8% on 4/24. Earnings volatility is isolated.

Crush estimate: ~7-10 vol pts, back to ~30% post-earnings

Skew: P/C OI ratio of 1.13 shows more put OI, but P/C volume of 0.70 and bullish net premium indicate stronger call buying interest.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient data for direct move comparison, but consistent EPS beats suggest positive bias.

Directional bias: Consistent EPS beats (last 4 quarters) suggest potential for positive reaction.

Key Levels

1$48 max pain (near-term)
2$35 gamma flip estimate
3$47/$50 major OI strikes (PUT/CALL)
4EM 4/17: $45.5 - $52

Flow Highlights

Heavy bullish premium flow in OTM calls: $37C (+$857K), $40C (+$383K), $41C (+$365K).

Institutional or large bullish positioning for a move higher, potentially hedging or outright speculation.

Unusual volume in $51C 5/01 (1,012 vol vs 321 OI) and $53C 4/10 (1,803 vol vs 1,024 OI).

Traders targeting upside through earnings and beyond, aligning with bullish flow.

Strategies

Short Iron Condor (Premium Harvest)
Sell $46.5 PUT / Buy $45.5 PUT | Sell $50.5 CALL / Buy $51.5 CALL | Exp 4/17
Credit: $0.35-$0.45
Max loss: $0.65
Max gain: $0.35
BE: $46.85
Trigger: Enter 3-5 days before estimated earnings date (4/15).
Capitalizes on elevated IV at 4/17 expiration, expected IV crush, and the strong gamma pinning regime which favors range-bound action. Wings placed just outside the 10-day expected move (±$1.99).
Outperforms: Stock stays between $46.85 and $50.15 (within ~2.2% of spot). Gamma pinning contains price.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond short strikes ($46.5 or $50.5).
Bull Call Spread (Directional Upside)
Buy $49 CALL / Sell $51 CALL | Exp 4/17
Max loss: $0.85
Max gain: $1.15
BE: $49.85
Trigger: On any pullback toward $48 support ahead of earnings.
Leverages consistent historical EPS beats, bullish flow (P/C 0.70, +$3M net prem), and call OI walls at $50/$52.50. Defined risk for a directional earnings play.
Outperforms: Stock moves above $49.85 post-earnings, targeting $51.
Underperforms: Stock fails to rally or sells off post-earnings.
Long Straddle (Volatility Expansion)
Buy $48.5 PUT / Buy $48.5 CALL | Exp 4/17
Max loss: $3.14
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 45.36 / 51.64
Trigger: Enter only if IV at 4/17 dips below 35% ahead of earnings.
A pure volatility play. High IV (37.5%) and crush risk make this challenging, but 100% EPS beat rate and potential for guidance-driven gap could justify a small position. Requires a move >6.4%.
Outperforms: Post-earnings move exceeds ±$3.14 (breakevens).
Underperforms: Stock pins near $48.5 and IV crushes sharply post-earnings.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: Expected move is ±4.1% (10-day) / ±6.4% (17-day). Strong gamma pinning may suppress the immediate move, but guidance could cause a larger gap.
!IV Crush: ~7-10 vol point drop expected post-earnings. This significantly hurts long premium strategies (e.g., long straddle).
!Liquidity: Good (2.2M+ OI), but daily volume (75K) is low compared to mega-caps. Slippage possible in wide-wing condors.
!Sizing: Use reduced size due to earnings binary event risk. Favor defined-risk spreads over naked positions.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory for the 4/17 expiration into the event.
?Spot price behavior relative to $48 max pain and $47/$50 OI clusters.
?Any news or sector sentiment affecting financials ahead of earnings.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.