base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 10.9% above MP (pre-computed)
Term structure: Front-month IV is elevated and moderately sloped; ATM 1-2 week IVs sit ~40-48% with mid-term (36-43d) ~45-48% — ample premium in 30-45 DTE band for selling defined-risk spreads.
Spot vs MP: Spot $354.91 is above Max Pain $320 (pre-computed) — spot is 10.9% above MP per confidence note.
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$73.5M) — strong dealer pinning bias into near-term strikes (concentrations at 350/355/360)
Gamma flip: ~$250.00 — Gamma flip ~ $250 (pre-computed) — well below spot; dealers are net long gamma above that level so near-term pinning is likely rather than breakout acceleration toward the flip.
OI concentrations: Call OI walls: $390 (15,282 OI), $360 (10,044 OI), $330 (3,971 OI). Put concentration: $250 (14,079 OI), $300 (13,309 OI), $320 (lots of MP activity). Near-term GEX pin magnets at $350/$355/$360.
#1put spread (cash-secured replacement)
Sell 2026-05-15 (36 DTE) 345/335 put spread
Pinning regime (+$73.5M GEX) with strong dealer magnets at 350/355 supports downside resilience above the 1-week EM lower bound $347.96. Selling a 10-point put spread at 345/335 collects elevated mid-term IV (May 15 ATM ~45%) while keeping defined risk if price gaps lower toward MP.
Mgmt: Take profits at 50-65% of max credit collected. Roll down (and widen) if price closes below $347.96 for two sessions — otherwise hold to 14d–7d remaining then tighten risk. Cut losses (buy back) if underlying closes below $335 (short put strike) or if market selloff accelerates with SPY/tech >2% drawdown.
#2iron condor (defined-risk neutral)
Sell 2026-05-15 (36 DTE) 360/370 call spread + 330/320 put spread (10-wide wings)
Wide 10-point wings capture the 1-2 week expected move band while using the pinning bias: near-term GEX magnets at 350/355/360 make the upside test less likely; put side is supported by concentrated put OI lower down. Elevated IV in the 30-45 DTE band pays well for wings.
Mgmt: Close at 50% of max profit. If either short strike is tested (close within 2% of the short) consider rolling that side 10–15 points out and for credit or converting to an unbalanced fly. Close/repair if price closes outside the condor breakeven on daily close and broad market risk increases.
#3short covered call (overwriting a long stock position)
Sell 2026-05-15 (36 DTE) 365 call against long stock
If you're long AVGO, selling the 365 call captures elevated call premium (mid-term IV ~45%) while staying above the 1-week EM upside $361.86. Dealer call flow and OI at 360/365 mean decent decay without high immediate assignment risk before ex-dividend or earnings (next earnings 2026-06-03).
Mgmt: Close at 60% of max premium if stock rallies near 362–365; roll up and out for credit if you want to retain stock and avoid assignment. Cut losses by buying back if the stock rallies through 370 with momentum or if broad market catalysts spike IV.
#4calendar (volatility/term structure play)
Sell 2026-04-24 (15 DTE) 350 put, buy 2026-05-15 (36 DTE) 350 put (calendar)
Short-dated front-month IV is elevated but term structure shows mid-dates still rich; selling the near 15d 350 put into GEX magnets (350/355) and owning a longer-dated hedge monetizes front-week theta and benefits if spot stays near current levels.
Mgmt: Take profits if front leg decays >60% while long leg retains value. Close/roll if price moves >2% away from 350 or if IV term structure compresses quickly. Avoid entering if immediate gamma-day action pushes spot below 347.96.
!Max pain concentrated at $320 across multiple expirations — longer-term MP drift lower increases tail risk for deep put sellers.
!Multiple large unusual call flows at $330/$340/$360/$370 (top premium flow lines) — watch for institutional directional buying that could lift spot and test upside short strikes.
!Short-dated expirations (2026-04-10 thru 2026-04-17) show heavy OI and flow around 345–365; do not sell naked into these weekly expirations unless prepared for intraday gamma and assignment risk.
!High IV (Avg IV 53.5%) means rich premium but also larger expected moves (e.g., 15d expected move to ~$330.61–$379.21) — size positions accordingly and use defined-risk structures.
!Gamma flip (~$250) is far below spot, but concentrated put OI at $250 and $300 could create non-linear hedging if price rapidly drops; have plan to roll or hedge if price moves toward those levels.