Term structure: Humped at 5/08 (61%) and 5/15 (59.3%), normal backwardation near-term
Spot vs MP: Below max pain by 5.6% (spot $122.78 vs MP $130)
GEX regime: Trending (GEX -$7.0M — pro-cyclical)
Gamma flip: ~$105.00 — Below $105, negative GEX accelerates moves down
OI concentrations: Major put wall at $105 (8,655 OI), secondary at $115 (5,436 OI). Call wall at $160 (7,047 OI).
#1put spread
Sell $115/$110 put spread 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
High IV (59.3%) provides rich credit. Short strike ($115) is above major OI support ($105) but below current spot, offering a 6.3% buffer. Defined risk in a trending GEX environment.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit (~$0.91 credit remaining). Roll up/out if spot breaches $118. Exit entirely on close below $110 (long strike).
#2put spread
Sell $120/$115 put spread 2026-04-24 (24 DTE)
Shorter DTE captures faster theta decay in high IV (52.5%). Short strike ($120) is just below spot, providing immediate premium. OI at $120 put (3,614) offers minor support. Defined risk.
Mgmt: Close at 70% profit (~$0.33 credit remaining). Defend by rolling to 5/15 expiration if tested. Exit on close below $117.
#3covered call
Sell $135 call 2026-05-01 (31 DTE) against 100 shares
For shareholders. Call strike is 9.9% above spot, above expected move ($128.53 top). High IV (50.4%) provides attractive premium. Max pain at $126 for this expiry offers mild magnetic pull.
Mgmt: Close call at 50% profit. Roll up and out if spot approaches $132. Consider closing entire position if shares drop below $115.
#4iron condor
Sell $115/$110P x $140/$145C 2026-05-08 (38 DTE)
Wide range ($30 between short strikes) aligns with high expected move (16.1%). Utilizes peak IV (61%) for maximum credit. Puts anchored near OI support, calls below major $160 call wall.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Adjust untested side if spot moves beyond 30% of short strike distance. Exit entire position if spot breaches $112 or $143.
!Earnings estimated 2026-05-05 — close all short premium positions before announcement. Never sell naked through earnings.
!Trending GEX regime (GEX -$7.0M) — negative gamma can accelerate moves. Favor defined-risk strategies.
!Major gamma flip at ~$105 — a break below this level could trigger accelerated selling due to dealer hedging.
!High IV (58%) implies elevated volatility expectations — be prepared for larger price swings than usual.
!Moderate liquidity — multi-leg spreads may face slippage. Use limit orders and wide bid-ask assumptions.
!Spot is 5.6% below max pain ($130) — slight upward magnetic pull, but negative GEX is the dominant force.