ANET Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Outlook

Bearish with a strong gravitational pull toward $105-$115 support. Confidence: 3/10. Negative GEX (-$7M) suggests trending downside, but spot is 5.6% above nearest max pain ($125), creating a conflict between mechanical drift and dealer hedging pressure. Mixed flow and high IV add noise.

Confidence:

3 / 10

base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict (GEX negative, net premium slightly positive); -1 spot 5.6% from MP; +0 no overriding catalysts.

Supports: GEX -$7.0M (trending), DEX +8.7M shares (long delta), structural put floor at $105-$115.
Conflicts: Spot ($122.78) well above max pain ($125-$130 near-term), net premium +$2.2M slightly bullish vs. negative GEX.

⚠️GEX -$7M: dealers are net short gamma, amplifying moves.

📉Spot 5.6% above nearest MP ($125), suggesting downward pin pressure.

🧱Massive $105 PUT OI (8,655) acts as a magnet and potential floor.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 58.4% — extremely high, favoring premium sellers if directionally confident.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$7.0M — dealers are net short gamma, amplifying spot moves and favoring trending conditions.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed — P/C ratios near 1.0 and small net premium indicate no clear institutional directional bias.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Below — spot ($122.78) is below near-term max pain ($130, $125), creating a gravitational pull downward toward those pins.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Negative GEX and the rising max pain trend ($130 → $135 over 16 expirations) suggest a persistent downward/consolidation regime, not just a single expiry pin. The structural put floor at $105 supports a multi-week range.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$118.05$127.50

Driven by negative GEX and spot above MP. A break above $127.50 invalidates near-term bearishness.

Next 1 week

$114.18$131.37

Max pain at $125 and put OI at $115 create a downward magnet. A hold above $125 shifts bias.

Next 2 weeks

$111.73$133.83

Structural OI at $105 and $140-$160 will contain extended moves; negative GEX favors tests lower.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $130 (2026-03-27); $125 (2026-04-02); $125 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $118.05/$127.50; 1w $114.18/$131.37

Support: $105.00 · $105.00 · $115.00

Resistance: $160.00 · $145.00 · $145.00

Gamma flip: ~$105.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 8,655

Structural: Call OI wall $140-$160 caps major rallies; put floor $100-$115 (especially $105 with 8,655 OI) provides major support. The $105 level is a critical gamma flip and magnet.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-7.0M

DEX: +8.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$105 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 8,655)

NTM gamma: Dealers are net short gamma overall. A move below ~$105 (gamma flip) could accelerate selling as dealers sell to hedge. A move higher would see them buy to cover, providing less stabilizing force.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 58.4% — extremely elevated, implying expensive options. Selling premium has inherent edge, but negative GEX increases risk.

Term structure: Humped — IV peaks at 61.0% for the 5/8 expiry (38 DTE), then gradually declines. This kink may price in post-earnings uncertainty (est. 5/5).

Skew: Near-term (2d) IV at 53.3% vs. 10d at 50.4% offers a ~3 vol-pt drop — supports short-dated premium sales or calendars selling the 4/2 expiry.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$2.2M slightly bullish; P/C vol 0.97, P/C OI 0.96 — perfectly balanced, indicating no strong directional conviction.

Directional prints: Unusual $124P 4/10 vol 158 vs OI 100 (1.6x) at IV 47.3% — could be a protective put buy or a speculative short put. Given mixed regime, side is ambiguous.

Unusual: Massive premium flow in deep OTM calls ($67.50, $35) and puts ($170, $195) — indicative of speculative, low-delta positioning or structured product flow, not near-term directional bets.

Risks & Catalysts

!Negative GEX: Spot moves can accelerate, breaking through technical levels quickly.

!High IV crush: Long premium positions face rapid time decay, especially post-earnings (est. 5/5).

!$105 Gamma Flip: A break below this massive OI level could trigger accelerated dealer hedging and a sharp drop.

!Earnings Catalyst (est. 5/5): High implied move (~16% for 5/8 expiry) creates event risk for all positions.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Weak	N/A	Negative GEX and spot above MP favor downside. High IV makes covered calls better.
Short stock	Moderate	N/A	Negative GEX supports, but strong $105 put floor and high borrow cost limit upside.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $130C 4/17 or $135C 5/1.	Stock drifts to max pain; capped upside if rally breaks above OI wall.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate	Sell $115/$110 put spread 4/17 (above put floor, below spot).	Negative GEX increases chance of hitting strikes; defined risk via spread.
Long calls	Weak	N/A	High IV (58.4%) is punitive for buyers; negative GEX and spot above MP are headwinds.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy $125/$120 bear put spread 4/10 (targeting move to weekly MP).	High IV still a cost, but negative GEX and downward pin provide directional edge.
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	e.g., $115/$110P x $135/$140C 4/17.	GEX negative (trending) violates core range-bound assumption; VIX context unknown but high IV helps.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate	Sell 4/2 $125C (IV 53.3%), buy 4/17 $125C (IV 50.7%) — reverse calendar for bearish/bias.	Captures IV drop; short leg benefits from pin to $125. Directional assumption required.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 2027 $105 LEAPS (IV ~55%), sell 4/17 $130C against it.	Long-dated IV high, but provides leverage for a grind toward max pain with income.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread (Near-Term)

Buy $125 / Sell $120 Bear Put Spread, exp 4/10.

Directly expresses the bearish pin from $122.78 toward $125 max pain, with negative GEX amplifying the move. Defined risk in a high-IV environment.

Debit: $2.00-$2.50

Max loss: $2.50

BE: $123.00

Mgmt: Take profit at 80% of max value if spot hits $125. Exit if spot closes above $127.50 (2d EM high).

Traders with a bearish near-term view wanting defined risk.

Covered Call (Multi-Week)

If long stock, sell the $130 Call exp 4/17.

Capitalizes on high IV for premium, aligns with downward pin pressure (you keep stock if it drops), and provides a buffer. The $130 strike is above near-term max pain, offering a high probability of keeping the premium.

Credit: $3.50-$4.50

Max loss: Unlimited (but offset by stock ownership)

BE: Stock purchase price minus credit

Mgmt: Roll up and out if spot approaches $130 before expiry. Consider closing if IV drops >10 points.

Existing shareholders looking to generate income in a stagnant-to-down market.

Put Spread (Defined Risk, 30+ DTE)

Sell $115 / Buy $110 Put Spread, exp 5/1 (31 DTE).

The extra time improves risk/reward by moving the short strike to the key $115 support level, giving the stock more room to drift down within the multi-week bearish regime. It collects high premium (IV 50.4%) while capping risk below the major $105 floor.

Credit: $1.80-$2.20

Max loss: $3.20

BE: $113.20

Mgmt: Close at 50-70% max profit. Exit early if spot breaks above $125 (invalidates bearish pin) or collapses below $110.

Traders who believe the downward pin/pressure persists for weeks but want to avoid the immediate noise of weekly expiries.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot rallies to tag $125 (weekly max pain) and stalls for 1 hour. → Enter $125/$120 bear put spread 4/10.

IFIf spot drops to $118 (2d EM low) and IV > 55%. → Sell $115/$110 put spread 5/1 for credit.

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot closes below $105 (gamma flip/major OI). → Exit all short put positions immediately (risk of accelerated selling).

EXITIf IV on the 5/8 expiry drops below 50% (post-earnings crush). → Take profits on all short premium positions (e.g., put spreads, covered calls).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Bearish pin from $122.78 toward $125-$130 max pain, amplified by negative GEX. Invalidation is a close above $127.50. The regime favors defined-risk bearish spreads (put spreads) and income strategies (covered calls) due to high IV and downward gravitational pull. Top plays: 1) Bear put spread for tactical downside, 2) Covered call for shareholders, 3) 31-DTE put spread for a longer, buffer-down drift play.

Read the Directional analysis for ANET. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.