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ANET

Arista Networks, Inc.Close $140.49EOD only

Max Pain

$140.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.29

3.8% from close

Price Gap

-0.49

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.03

Balanced positioning

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ANET options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

ANET Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish with a strong gravitational pull toward $105-$115 support. Confidence: 3/10. Negative GEX (-$7M) suggests trending downside, but spot is 5.6% above nearest max pain ($125), creating a conflict between mechanical drift and dealer hedging pressure. Mixed flow and high IV add noise.

Confidence:

3 / 10

base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict (GEX negative, net premium slightly positive); -1 spot 5.6% from MP; +0 no overriding catalysts.

Supports: GEX -$7.0M (trending), DEX +8.7M shares (long delta), structural put floor at $105-$115.
Conflicts: Spot ($122.78) well above max pain ($125-$130 near-term), net premium +$2.2M slightly bullish vs. negative GEX.

⚠️GEX -$7M: dealers are net short gamma, amplifying moves.

📉Spot 5.6% above nearest MP ($125), suggesting downward pin pressure.

🧱Massive $105 PUT OI (8,655) acts as a magnet and potential floor.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 58.4% — extremely high, favoring premium sellers if directionally confident.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$7.0M — dealers are net short gamma, amplifying spot moves and favoring trending conditions.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed — P/C ratios near 1.0 and small net premium indicate no clear institutional directional bias.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Below — spot ($122.78) is below near-term max pain ($130, $125), creating a gravitational pull downward toward those pins.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Negative GEX and the rising max pain trend ($130 → $135 over 16 expirations) suggest a persistent downward/consolidation regime, not just a single expiry pin. The structural put floor at $105 supports a multi-week range.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$118.05$127.50

Driven by negative GEX and spot above MP. A break above $127.50 invalidates near-term bearishness.

Next 1 week

$114.18$131.37

Max pain at $125 and put OI at $115 create a downward magnet. A hold above $125 shifts bias.

Next 2 weeks

$111.73$133.83

Structural OI at $105 and $140-$160 will contain extended moves; negative GEX favors tests lower.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $130 (2026-03-27); $125 (2026-04-02); $125 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $118.05/$127.50; 1w $114.18/$131.37

Support: $105.00 · $105.00 · $115.00

Resistance: $160.00 · $145.00 · $145.00

Gamma flip: ~$105.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 8,655

Structural: Call OI wall $140-$160 caps major rallies; put floor $100-$115 (especially $105 with 8,655 OI) provides major support. The $105 level is a critical gamma flip and magnet.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-7.0M

DEX: +8.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$105 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 8,655)

NTM gamma: Dealers are net short gamma overall. A move below ~$105 (gamma flip) could accelerate selling as dealers sell to hedge. A move higher would see them buy to cover, providing less stabilizing force.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 58.4% — extremely elevated, implying expensive options. Selling premium has inherent edge, but negative GEX increases risk.

Term structure: Humped — IV peaks at 61.0% for the 5/8 expiry (38 DTE), then gradually declines. This kink may price in post-earnings uncertainty (est. 5/5).

Skew: Near-term (2d) IV at 53.3% vs. 10d at 50.4% offers a ~3 vol-pt drop — supports short-dated premium sales or calendars selling the 4/2 expiry.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$2.2M slightly bullish; P/C vol 0.97, P/C OI 0.96 — perfectly balanced, indicating no strong directional conviction.

Directional prints: Unusual $124P 4/10 vol 158 vs OI 100 (1.6x) at IV 47.3% — could be a protective put buy or a speculative short put. Given mixed regime, side is ambiguous.

Unusual: Massive premium flow in deep OTM calls ($67.50, $35) and puts ($170, $195) — indicative of speculative, low-delta positioning or structured product flow, not near-term directional bets.

Risks & Catalysts

!Negative GEX: Spot moves can accelerate, breaking through technical levels quickly.

!High IV crush: Long premium positions face rapid time decay, especially post-earnings (est. 5/5).

!$105 Gamma Flip: A break below this massive OI level could trigger accelerated dealer hedging and a sharp drop.

!Earnings Catalyst (est. 5/5): High implied move (~16% for 5/8 expiry) creates event risk for all positions.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Weak	N/A	Negative GEX and spot above MP favor downside. High IV makes covered calls better.
Short stock	Moderate	N/A	Negative GEX supports, but strong $105 put floor and high borrow cost limit upside.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $130C 4/17 or $135C 5/1.	Stock drifts to max pain; capped upside if rally breaks above OI wall.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate	Sell $115/$110 put spread 4/17 (above put floor, below spot).	Negative GEX increases chance of hitting strikes; defined risk via spread.
Long calls	Weak	N/A	High IV (58.4%) is punitive for buyers; negative GEX and spot above MP are headwinds.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy $125/$120 bear put spread 4/10 (targeting move to weekly MP).	High IV still a cost, but negative GEX and downward pin provide directional edge.
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	e.g., $115/$110P x $135/$140C 4/17.	GEX negative (trending) violates core range-bound assumption; VIX context unknown but high IV helps.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate	Sell 4/2 $125C (IV 53.3%), buy 4/17 $125C (IV 50.7%) — reverse calendar for bearish/bias.	Captures IV drop; short leg benefits from pin to $125. Directional assumption required.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 2027 $105 LEAPS (IV ~55%), sell 4/17 $130C against it.	Long-dated IV high, but provides leverage for a grind toward max pain with income.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread (Near-Term)

Buy $125 / Sell $120 Bear Put Spread, exp 4/10.

Directly expresses the bearish pin from $122.78 toward $125 max pain, with negative GEX amplifying the move. Defined risk in a high-IV environment.

Debit: $2.00-$2.50

Max loss: $2.50

BE: $123.00

Mgmt: Take profit at 80% of max value if spot hits $125. Exit if spot closes above $127.50 (2d EM high).

Traders with a bearish near-term view wanting defined risk.

Covered Call (Multi-Week)

If long stock, sell the $130 Call exp 4/17.

Capitalizes on high IV for premium, aligns with downward pin pressure (you keep stock if it drops), and provides a buffer. The $130 strike is above near-term max pain, offering a high probability of keeping the premium.

Credit: $3.50-$4.50

Max loss: Unlimited (but offset by stock ownership)

BE: Stock purchase price minus credit

Mgmt: Roll up and out if spot approaches $130 before expiry. Consider closing if IV drops >10 points.

Existing shareholders looking to generate income in a stagnant-to-down market.

Put Spread (Defined Risk, 30+ DTE)

Sell $115 / Buy $110 Put Spread, exp 5/1 (31 DTE).

The extra time improves risk/reward by moving the short strike to the key $115 support level, giving the stock more room to drift down within the multi-week bearish regime. It collects high premium (IV 50.4%) while capping risk below the major $105 floor.

Credit: $1.80-$2.20

Max loss: $3.20

BE: $113.20

Mgmt: Close at 50-70% max profit. Exit early if spot breaks above $125 (invalidates bearish pin) or collapses below $110.

Traders who believe the downward pin/pressure persists for weeks but want to avoid the immediate noise of weekly expiries.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot rallies to tag $125 (weekly max pain) and stalls for 1 hour. → Enter $125/$120 bear put spread 4/10.

IFIf spot drops to $118 (2d EM low) and IV > 55%. → Sell $115/$110 put spread 5/1 for credit.

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot closes below $105 (gamma flip/major OI). → Exit all short put positions immediately (risk of accelerated selling).

EXITIf IV on the 5/8 expiry drops below 50% (post-earnings crush). → Take profits on all short premium positions (e.g., put spreads, covered calls).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Bearish pin from $122.78 toward $125-$130 max pain, amplified by negative GEX. Invalidation is a close above $127.50. The regime favors defined-risk bearish spreads (put spreads) and income strategies (covered calls) due to high IV and downward gravitational pull. Top plays: 1) Bear put spread for tactical downside, 2) Covered call for shareholders, 3) 31-DTE put spread for a longer, buffer-down drift play.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.