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ANET

Arista Networks, Inc.Close $140.49EOD only
Max Pain
$140.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.29
3.8% from close
Price Gap
-0.49
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
4
Low premium
P/C OI
1.03
Balanced positioning
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ANET options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
ANET Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected ~May 5, 2026 (~35 days out). IV is elevated (58%), but the term structure shows the primary kink is at the 5/08 expiration, not the nearest. The stock has a strong history of beating EPS estimates and gapping higher. A directional long call or call spread strategy is favored, with a defined-risk short premium play as a secondary option.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1.5 strong historical beat & directional bias; +0 high IV; -0 no explicit date
Most important: Historical pattern of EPS beats and upward gaps, combined with spot trading below max pain, suggests potential for a relief rally toward $130-$135.
📅Earnings date estimated as ~2026-05-05. No explicit confirmation in data.
📊100% EPS beat rate over last 4 quarters. Strong historical upside bias.
⚖️Spot ($122.78) trades 5.6% below nearest max pain ($130), a potential magnet.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 58%)
Gamma Regime
Trending (GEX $-7.0M — pro-cyclical)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem +$2.2M, P/C 0.97)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 5.6% (spot $122.78 vs MP $130)
Gamma flip: ~$105.00 — Dealer hedging amplifies moves below $105, but spot is well above.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-05 (35 days)estimated

Expected moves:

  • 5/08 (38d): ±$19.73 (16.1%)
  • 5/15 (45d): ±$20.88 (17.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Elevated across the board. Sharp kink at 5/08 (61% IV) vs 5/01 (50.4%). This confirms the market is pricing earnings risk into the 5/08 weekly.

Crush estimate: ~10-15 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~50% range.

Skew: Puts slightly richer than calls (P/C OI 0.96), but heavy OI in $105-$120 puts suggests hedging, not directional bets.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Cannot calculate exact % move from provided data, but consistent EPS beats suggest upside bias.

Directional bias: Strongly positive; all four recent quarters showed positive EPS surprises.

Key Levels

1$105 Gamma Flip / Major Put OI
2$130 Max Pain (nearest)
3$125-$127.5 EM upper bound for 4/10
4$145-$160 Major Call OI Wall

Flow Highlights

Massive premium flow into deep OTM calls ($67.5, $35, $80, $100). Net premium >$2.2M positive.

Institutional or speculative long-dated bullish positioning, not directly tied to earnings.

Unusual Put activity: 4/10 $124 Put (Vol=158 vs OI=100).

Possible near-term hedge or bearish earnings bet just above spot.

Strategies

Bull Call Spread (Directional)
Buy $125 Call / Sell $135 Call 5/08
Max loss: Debit Paid
Max gain: $10.00
BE: $125 + Debit
Trigger: Enter 1-2 weeks before estimated earnings date if IV remains elevated.
Leverages historical beat rate and spot below max pain for a defined-risk upside play. Uses the high-IV 5/08 expiration.
Outperforms: Stock gaps up post-earnings, moving toward $130-$135 max pain zone.
Underperforms: Stock misses and sells off, or IV crush outweighs directional move.
Short Put Spread (Premium Sell)
Sell $115 Put / Buy $110 Put 5/08
Credit: $1.50-$2.00
Max loss: $3.50
Max gain: $1.75
BE: $113.25
Trigger: Enter 1-2 weeks before earnings if confident stock holds above $115.
Capitalizes on elevated IV. Strikes are below the gamma flip and major put OI at $105, providing a buffer. Historical strength reduces probability of a large drop.
Outperforms: Stock is flat or rises post-earnings. Profits from IV crush and time decay.
Underperforms: Stock gaps down below $113.25 breakeven.
Long Straddle (Volatility)
Buy $122.5 Straddle 5/08
Max loss: Debit Paid
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $122.5 ± Debit
Trigger: Enter only if IV dips before earnings, allowing cheaper entry.
A pure play on a move exceeding the large 16% implied move. High risk due to expensive premium and crush.
Outperforms: Stock moves >±$19.73 (the 5/08 expected move).
Underperforms: Stock pins near $122.5 and IV crushes significantly.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: The 5/08 expected move is ±16.1% (~$19.73). A move of this magnitude would breach most spread boundaries.
!IV Crush: High starting IV (61% for 5/08) means significant post-earnings volatility decay is likely, punishing long premium strategies.
!Liquidity: Options are liquid with 130 active strikes, but volume is moderate. Sizing should be adjusted accordingly.
!Earnings Date Uncertainty: The date is estimated (May 5). A confirmed date will shift the IV term structure and expected move.

What to Watch

?Confirmation of the exact earnings date (likely early May).
?Spot price action relative to the $125-$130 zone (max pain and near-term resistance).
?IV trajectory in the 5/08 expiration as the event approaches.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.