base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (pinning); +1 GEX positive; -1 spot 12.2% from MP
Term structure: Front-week (3–10d) IVs are depressed (24.2%–30.1%) while 21–42d sits elevated (40–44%), creating calendar/interval selling opportunities
Spot vs MP: Above (Spot $238.38 vs Max Pain near-dates $212.50→$225.00; current MP by next expiries $225/$220 with spot above)
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$361.9M) — large positive gamma from dealers
OI concentrations: Call OI wall $250/$260+ (heavy call flow at $250: $123,652–50,482 OI entries and large call premium flow), near-term call OI cluster at $240 (7,027 OI)
#1put spread
Sell 235/230 put spread exp 2026-05-15 (35 DTE)
Spot $238.38 is above the $235/$240 GEX pin; positive GEX (+$361.9M) and near-term GEX magnet at $235/$240 reduce chance of push lower. Back-month IV (35d ATM 40.2%) is rich compared with front-week, improving premium collected for 30–45 DTE sells.
Mgmt: Take profits at 50–75% of max credit; roll down 1 strike and out 1–2 expirations if price closes below $235; cut loss if short put tested and underlying closes below $233 on daily close
#2iron condor
Sell 240/245C and 230/225P exp 2026-05-08 (28 DTE)
Constructed around the strong near-term dealer pin at $240 (+$14.7M) and secondary pin at $235. Front-week IV low gives cheaper short-dated wings; mid-term IV rich boosts collected credit for 28d wings. Wide call OI wall above ($250+) reduces odds of immediate gap through upside.
Mgmt: Take profits at 50% of max credit; if either short strike is touched (test intraday), consider buyback/roll by one strike or roll the whole wing out 1 expiration; cut losses if underlying closes outside either breakeven on daily close
#3covered call
Buy 100 shares and sell 245 call exp 2026-05-15 (35 DTE)
Covered call collects rich mid-term IV on the 245 strike (calls have heavy flows around 240–250). With dealers pinning near 240–235, probability of remaining below 245 through 35d is reasonable and yields attractive covered-call return.
Mgmt: Close call at 65% of max profit or if AMZN rallies and threatens assignment (close/roll if >$244.50 intraday); use protective put or close position if stock falls below $235 on daily close
#4calendar (call)
Short 2026-04-17 240 call, long 2026-05-15 240 call (calendar, 7d short vs 35d long)
Front-week IV (7d ATM 30.1%) is depressed relative to 35d (40.2%), so selling front-week call premium while carrying longer-dated call (same strike) benefits from theta on the short leg and back-month IV-rich environment. Works best if AMZN oscillates inside $235–$240 pin band.
Mgmt: Close short leg by expiration or roll weekly if short tested; close entire calendar at >50% profit or if underlying breaks below $235 or above $241 on daily close
!Dealer GEX $+361.9M — while supportive of pinning, large positive GEX can accelerate moves if dealer hedging dynamics change; monitor intraday gamma shifts
!Spot is 12.2% above near-term Max Pain and MP trend is rising — longer-dated MP moves higher which could compress downside protection for puts
!Front-week IV is depressed (3d ATM 24.2%) — avoid naked front-week sells through potential news; prefer defined-risk or calendar structures
!Upcoming earnings 2026-04-30 (outside 2-week window) — do not sell naked across that date; close or adjust positions into earnings
!Unusual activity: heavy call premium flow at $250 and strong one-day flow at $240/$235 — watch for directional institutional positioning that can skew risk-reward