base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 10.0% from MP
Term structure: Near-dated (1-2 week) ATM IV is lowish (~29-33%); 22–43 DTE curve jumps to ~41–46% — favorable to sell 30–45 DTE wings/calendars using higher mid-term IV
Spot vs MP: Spot $233.65 is above max pain (MPs near $212–$215) per pre-computed fields; short-term MPs (4/10–4/15) are $212–$215 which is ~10% below spot
GEX regime: Pinning (Total GEX +$384.3M) — dealers are long gamma exposure that tends to magnet price toward near GEX concentrations
OI concentrations: Near-term call OI and flow concentrated at $225–$250 (heavy call flow), GEX concentration strongest at $235.00 (+$12.2M, +0.6% from spot) and $232.50 (+$6.1M, -0.5%); put OI clusters at $215.00 (8,967 OI)
#1put spread
Sell 225/220 put spread 2026-05-08 (29 DTE)
29 DTE ATM IV ~42.6% (rich mid-term vol); strong GEX/support magnets at 225 and 232.5 reduce probability of a crash below 225. Defined-risk spread captures mid-term elevated premium with limited downside.
Mgmt: Take profits at 50–65% of max credit; roll down-and-out if underlying closes <225.00 (roll to lower strikes or widen spread); cut loss if price closes below 222.00 or spread mark reaches 60% of max loss.
#2put spread (deeper ITM/insurance for higher credit)
Sell 230/225 put spread 2026-05-15 (36 DTE)
230 short is ~ATM-to-1% OTM in front weeks and benefits from pinning to 232.5–235; May15 ATM IV ~40.9% gives elevated premium. Spread width is 5, making max loss limited and breakeven comfortable inside GEX support bands.
Mgmt: Close at 50% of max profit; roll down 1–2 strikes if price tests 228–229 or if skew widens; cut losses if short strike is taken and position mark exceeds 50% of max loss.
#3call spread
Sell 240/245 call spread 2026-05-08 (29 DTE)
Upside defined-risk hedge: 240 short sits near the 1-week EM upper bound (~236.7) and inside 2-week upper ~$240.37; call OI wall sits further out (250–300) so a modest call spread sells premium where short-term IV is lower but mid-term IV is elevated. Works as hedge if you want two-sided income.
Mgmt: Take profits at 50% of max credit; close/roll if AMZN closes >240.00 for 2 consecutive sessions; cut loss if spread mark >50% of max loss or if stock >245 intraday.
#4iron condor
Sell 230/225P x 245/250C 2026-05-22 (43 DTE)
43 DTE sits in a high mid-term IV band (~41.2%). Using 230 short put leverages pinning/support at 232.5/235 while short 245 call stays under the heavy call OI wall (250+). Defined-risk iron condor captures high net premium while keeping risk symmetric and limited.
Mgmt: Target 40–60% profit to close; tighten wings or close if short strikes are tested (i.e., close when stock trades within $1–$2 of a short strike intraday); roll wings out 2–3 weeks if pin remains intact and credit supports the roll.
#5calendar (buy longer/dump near-term)
Sell 2026-04-17 (8 DTE) 235 call short and buy 2026-06-18 (70 DTE) 235 call long — near-term calendar
Term structure: front-week ATM IV (~31–35%) is cheaper than 70d IV (~36.5%) but buying longer call and selling front-week can extract calendar theta while benefiting from pinning into 235 short strike (GEX +$12.2M). Use small size — calendar is debit but risk controlled by front-week premium.
Mgmt: Small sizing only; close short leg before expiry if price moves >$2 away from 235; exit entire structure if vol collapses or if short-dated IV spikes >20% relative to long leg.
!Max pain schedule is far below spot (next MPs $212–$215) — large gap between spot and MP means sellers should size for potential mean reversion to the downside.
!Positive GEX +$384.3M can create pinning but also amplify intraday moves if hedging flips; monitor sudden gamma-induced squeezes around $232.50–$235.00 GEX concentrations.
!Front-week ATM IV is lower (~29–33%) — avoid naked weekly short deltas; use defined-risk weekly spreads if trading weeklies.
!Heavy call flow and OI concentrated in $225–$250 (notably $275/$300 long-dated calls) — asymmetric institutional bullish flow can produce rapid upside gaps; protect call-side risk (use spreads).
!Unusual flow: large unusual volume in 4/10 $232.50 and $230/$235 strikes (see Unusual Activity); expect short-term pinning and possible early assignment risk on deep ITM short calls if selling covered calls near ex-dates (no ex-dividend listed).