base 5; +1 strong pinning (GEX +$354M); +1 normal IV; +1 spot above MP; -1 negative net premium flow
Term structure: Major IV hump at 5/01 (43.5%) vs. 32.5% on 4/24 — an 11 vol point differential.
Spot vs MP: Above max pain by 2.3% (spot $209.77 vs MP $205)
GEX regime: Strong Pinning (Total GEX +$354.0M)
OI concentrations: Major call walls at $275 (204K OI), $300 (139K), $250 (122K). Put support at $200 (high OI).
#1put spread
Sell $200/$195 Put Spread, Exp 4/24 (22 DTE)
Strikes are below the $205 max pain and the $200 OI level, providing a 4.7% buffer from spot. The strong pinning regime (GEX +$354M) supports a range-bound price action. IV of 32.5% offers solid credit for the risk.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit. Roll down/out if AMZN closes below $202. Exit entirely on a weekly close below $200.
#2calendar spread
Sell May 1 $210 Put / Buy April 24 $210 Put (Short Diagonal)
Direct volatility surface trade. Sells the elevated IV (43.5%) of the May 1 expiry against the lower IV (32.5%) of the April 24 expiry, harvesting the 11 vol point differential. The $210 strike is above current spot and max pain, providing a buffer.
Mgmt: Close position before May 1 expiration to capture full IV collapse. Exit if spot breaches $205, as the short put risk increases.
#3iron condor
$200/$195 Put & $220/$225 Call Iron Condor, Exp 4/17 (15 DTE)
Capitalizes on the strong pinning environment. Short strikes are placed just outside the 15-day expected move ($198.90 - $220.65). The call side targets the $220 OI level. Defined risk with high probability of success in a pinning regime.
Mgmt: Close the winning side at 70% profit. Manage the losing side at 2x credit received. Close entire position if spot breaches either short strike.
#4cash-secured put
Sell $200 Put, Exp 5/15 (43 DTE)
For capital-secure sellers willing to own AMZN. Targets a 4.7% drop to strike, below the current max pain. High IV (40.5%) yields attractive premium. The strong pinning force reduces the likelihood of a sustained drop below $200.
Mgmt: Roll down/out at 21 DTE if put is ATM. Close at 50% profit. Be mindful of assignment risk if spot approaches $200 near expiration.
!Earnings on 4/30 (est.) — Close all short premium positions before this date. Do not sell naked options through earnings.
!Significant bearish premium flow at $245 and $175 puts (net flow negative millions). This indicates institutional put buying, a potential headwind for put sellers.
!Unusual high-IV put buying in near-term expirations (e.g., 4/06 $187.5 Put at 42.4% IV). This suggests some traders are hedging for a sharp, near-term drop.
!Net premium flow is negative (-$15.6M), reinforcing the bearish institutional flow signal.
!Positive GEX has increased significantly from +$159.8M to +$354.0M week-over-week. While this strengthens pinning, a break below the $200-$205 support zone could trigger accelerated selling as dealers hedge.
!Max pain trend is rising ($205 → $245 over expirations), suggesting a gradual upward bias in dealer positioning over the longer term.