base 5; +1 normal IV; +1 pinning regime; -1 spot near MP; -1 strong bearish flow signal
Term structure: Sharp hump at 5/01 (43.7% IV) vs. 34.2% on 4/24 — a 9.5 vol point differential.
Spot vs MP: Above by 1.6% ($208.28 vs $205)
GEX regime: Pinning (Total GEX +$88.9M)
OI concentrations: Major call walls at $260 (68K OI), $235 (41K), $250 (41K). Put support at $210 (high premium flow).
#1put spread
Sell $200/$195 Put Spread, Exp 4/24 (29 DTE)
Strikes are below the $205 max pain cluster and the $200 OI level, providing a 4% buffer. Targets the stable, multi-week range suggested by the MP ladder. IV of 34.2% offers solid credit.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit. Roll down/out if AMZN closes below $203. Exit entirely on a weekly close below $200.
#2calendar spread
Sell May 1 $210 Put / Buy April 24 $210 Put (Short Diagonal)
Direct volatility surface trade. Sells the elevated IV (43.7%) of the May 1 expiry against the lower IV (34.2%) of the April 24 expiry, harvesting the 9.5 vol point differential as the May event passes.
Mgmt: Close position before May 1 expiration to capture full IV collapse. Exit if spot breaches $205, as the short put risk increases.
#3iron condor
$200/$205 Put & $220/$225 Call Iron Condor, Exp 4/17 (22 DTE)
Capitalizes on the multi-week pinning environment. Short strikes are placed just outside the 22-day expected move ($194.15 - $222.40). The call side targets the $220 OI concentration.
Mgmt: Close the winning side at 70% profit. Manage the losing side at 2x credit received. Close entire position if spot breaches either short strike.
#4cash-secured put
Sell $200 Put, Exp 5/15 (50 DTE)
For capital-secure sellers willing to own AMZN. Targets a 4% drop to strike, below the near-term pain cluster. High IV (40.9%) yields attractive premium. Aligns with longer-term MP of $205-$210.
Mgmt: Roll down/out at 21 DTE if put is ATM. Close at 50% profit. Be mindful of assignment risk if spot approaches $200 near expiration.
!HIGH CONVICTION BEARISH FLOW: March 27th $210 Put saw 30,951 volume (5.6x OI) at very low IV (18.8%). This is a strong, high-conviction bet for a move to/below $210 within 1 day.
!Spot ($208.28) is only 1.6% above the nearest max pain ($205). This reduces the buffer for put sellers and aligns with the bearish unusual activity.
!Net premium flow is negative (-$6.9M), with significant bearish flow at the $210 strike. This indicates institutional put buying, a potential headwind.
!IV term structure shows a significant hump at the 5/01 expiration (43.7% IV). The short calendar spread opportunity exists to harvest this, but naked short puts in May carry elevated volatility risk.
!Positive GEX has decreased from +$210.6M to +$88.9M week-over-week. The pinning force is still present but weakening. Monitor for a break of $205.