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AMZN

Amazon.com, Inc.Close $268.46EOD only
Max Pain
$260.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.56
1.3% from close
Price Gap
-8.46
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
16
Low premium
P/C OI
0.58
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMZN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
AMZN Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 6, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 21, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings on 2026-04-30 (24 days out). IV term structure shows a sharp kink at 2026-05-01 (44.2% vs 31.7% pre), confirming elevated earnings IV. Expected move ±9.1% ($19.35). Historical EPS beat rate 75% with average move under EM. Best strategy: volatility calendar spread to capitalize on IV differential and crush. Key risk: stock gaps far from strike, reducing calendar spread profitability.

Confidence:
4.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.8% from MP
Most important: IV term structure kink at 2026-05-01 (44.2% vs 37.2% in June) presents a ~7.0 vol point differential for calendar spreads.
📅Earnings confirmed 2026-04-30, 24 days out
⚠️No explicit historical move data; rely on EPS beat rate for directional bias
📊IV differential ~7.0 vol points between May and June expiries supports calendar spreads

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (24 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-01 (25d): ±$19.35 (9.1%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 2026-05-01: ATM IV 44.2% vs 31.7% pre (2026-04-24) and 37.2% post (2026-06-18), elevated for earnings.

Crush estimate: ~7.0 vol pts differential between May and June expiries, supporting calendar spreads.

Skew: P/C OI ratio 0.58 indicates more call OI; P/C volume ratio 0.85 shows balanced flow.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: No explicit historical move data provided; EPS surprise positive 3/4 quarters.

Directional bias: No explicit gap data; EPS surprises suggest upside bias.

Key Levels

1$210.00
2$207.50
3$205.00
4$215.00
5$217.50
6$220.00

Flow Highlights

Heavy $245.00 put flow: net $-35,224,006 (premium to sellers), OI not provided.

Large institutional put selling for income, suggesting limited downside fear.

Unusual $212.50 PUT 2026-04-08: Vol 2,622 vs OI 115 (22.8x), IV 35.5%, last $2.04.

Fresh OTM put buying near spot, possibly hedging or betting on slight dip.

Strategies

Volatility calendar spread
Sell $212.50 CALL 2026-05-01 / Buy $212.50 CALL 2026-06-18
Credit: $2.00-$4.00
Max loss: Unlimited (short call risk)
Max gain: Credit received + IV crush premium
BE: Dynamic based on IV differential and spot at May expiry
Trigger: Enter 1-2 weeks before earnings when IV differential >5 vol points.
Capitalizes on ~7.0 vol point IV differential (44.2% vs 37.2%) between May and June expiries; defined risk vs outright short volatility.
Outperforms: Stock near $212.50 at May expiry, IV crushes post-earnings faster than June IV decays.
Underperforms: Stock gaps far from $212.50, reducing calendar spread value; or IV rises in both expiries.
Short strangle
Sell $190 PUT x $240 CALL 2026-05-01
Credit: $5.00-$7.00
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $6.00
BE: 184.00/246.00
Trigger: Enter 1-2 weeks before earnings if IV >40%.
Elevated IV at 44.2% supports premium selling; historical EPS beat rate 75% but no big move data suggests range-bound outcome.
Outperforms: Stock stays within EM bounds ($193.44-$232.14), IV crushes post-earnings.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond EM by >10%, causing large losses.
Long straddle
Buy $212.50 straddle 2026-05-01
Max loss: $19.35
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 193.15/231.85
Trigger: Enter if IV <45% and expected move underestimates potential surprise.
IV kink indicates earnings premium; historical EPS surprises suggest potential for larger move, but crush risk high.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds EM by >30% (beyond $184.51-$241.06).
Underperforms: Stock pins near $212.50, IV crushes to ~32%.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM ±9.1% ($19.35) but could exceed on guidance change given historical EPS surprises.
!IV crush: Estimated ~7.0 vol pts differential between May and June; calendar spreads benefit, long premium suffers.
!Liquidity: High (4M+ OI, 324K volume), but watch for wide spreads in OTM strikes.
!Sizing: Keep positions small (<5% of portfolio) due to elevated IV and event risk.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into earnings (monitor 2026-05-01 vs 2026-06-18 IV differential)
?Spot action near $212.50 strike for calendar spread profitability
?Unusual OTM put activity (e.g., $212.50 PUT)
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.