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AMZN

Amazon.com, Inc.Close $265.01EOD only
Max Pain
$260.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.47
2.1% from close
Price Gap
-5.01
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
12
Low premium
P/C OI
0.58
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMZN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
AMZN Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 26, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings confirmed for 4/02 AMC (7 days out). IV is elevated for the 4/02 expiration (36.2% vs ~33% nearby), creating a clear IV crush setup. Historical data shows AMZN tends to under-move its expected move, and the stock is in a pinning regime, favoring premium-selling strategies.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1 for confirmed earnings date (4/02) and sharp IV kink; +0.5 for historical under-move tendency; -0 for elevated but not extreme IV; -0 for mixed flow vs prior bullish
Most important: Earnings date is now explicit (4/02), confirmed by the sharp IV kink. The 4.2% expected move is elevated, but history suggests a high probability of an under-move.
📅Earnings date confirmed for 4/02 AMC via explicit expected move and IV kink.
⚠️Flow regime shifted from strongly bullish to mixed/negative net premium. Monitor for increased put hedging into the event.
💰IV for 4/02 is 36.2% vs ~33% for nearby expirations, indicating a ~3-4 vol point premium for the event.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal (IV 39%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$88.9M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $-6.9M, P/C 0.87)
Spot vs MP
Above max pain by 1.6% (spot $208.28 vs MP $205)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-02 (7 days)explicit (expected move and IV kink at 4/02)

Expected moves:

  • 4/02 (7d): ±$8.83 (4.2%) [$199.45 - $217.10]

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 4/02 expiration: IV jumps to 36.2% from 33.9% (4/01) and 30.3% (4/30). IV then declines to 33.8% for 4/10.

Crush estimate: ~5-7 vol pts post-event, back to ~31-33% (consistent with 4/10 levels).

Skew: Mixed flow (P/C 0.87) with significant net put premium at $210. However, large bullish call flow at $215 and OTM calls ($100, $105) suggests complex positioning.

Historical Context

Historical earnings data not available.

Key Levels

1Max Pain: $205 (near-term)
2Spot: $208.28
3EM 4/02 Lower Bound: $199.45
4EM 4/02 Upper Bound: $217.10
5Call OI Wall: $260
6Gamma Pin Zone: $205-$210

Flow Highlights

Large net put premium at $210 strike (-$6.6M). Heavy put volume in 3/27 $210P (30,951 vol, 5.6x OI) with low IV (18.8%).

Likely closing of short put positions or pinning-related flow near max pain, not new bearish bets. The low IV suggests these are not earnings plays.

Significant bullish call premium at $215 (+$2.38M net) and far OTM calls ($100, $105, $120).

Institutional bullish hedging or financing trades. The $215 call flow aligns with the upper expected move bound.

Unusual put buying in 4/01 $215P (1,041 vol, 10.3x OI) with very low IV (21.8%).

Possible closing of positions or specific hedging ahead of earnings. The low IV again suggests it's not a volatility bet.

Strategies

Iron Condor (Premium Sell)
Sell 4/02 $199.50 Put / Buy 4/02 $194.50 Put | Sell 4/02 $217 Call / Buy 4/02 $222 Call
Credit: $1.40-$1.80
Max loss: $3.60
Max gain: $1.60
BE: $198.10 to $218.40
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before earnings (3/31-4/01).
Capitalizes on elevated IV for the 4/02 expiration. Strikes calibrated just inside the expected move, providing a ~1.5% buffer on each side. The pinning regime supports contained moves.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the expected move bounds ($199.45-$217.10) and IV crushes post-earnings.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond the short strikes, especially below $199.50.
Put Calendar Spread (IV Crush Play)
Buy 4/01 $208 Put & Sell 4/02 $208 Put
Credit: $0.80-$1.20
Max loss: Limited (width of strikes minus credit)
Max gain: Credit received
BE: Complex; best if stock is near $208 at 4/01 close with high IV on the short 4/02 put.
Trigger: Enter now or on a spot move toward $210.
Exploits the IV differential (33.9% vs 36.2%) between the two expirations bracketing earnings. Positive theta play that benefits specifically from the IV crush on the short 4/02 leg.
Outperforms: Stock is near $208 at 4/01 expiry and the IV in the 4/02 put collapses post-earnings.
Underperforms: Large immediate move away from $208 before 4/01 expiry.
Bull Put Spread (Pinning & Flow)
Sell 4/02 $200 Put & Buy 4/02 $195 Put
Credit: $1.10-$1.40
Max loss: $3.90
Max gain: $1.25
BE: $198.75
Trigger: Enter on any pullback toward $207.
Aligns with the stock's position above max pain and the pinning regime. Strike is just below the lower expected move bound, offering a defined-risk way to sell elevated IV with a bullish bias.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $200 through expiration. Benefits from IV crush and pinning above max pain ($205).
Underperforms: Stock gaps below $200 on earnings.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: The 4.2% expected move is elevated. A guidance surprise could cause a gap beyond the EM bounds. Watch the $199.45 and $217.10 levels.
!IV Crush Magnitude: Estimated crush of 5-7 vol points is modest. If overall market volatility (VIX) is high, the post-earnings IV may not drop to 31%.
!Flow Shift: Net flow has turned mixed/negative (-$6.9M) vs. prior strong bullish flow. This could indicate increased hedging or a more neutral institutional stance.
!Liquidity: Excellent liquidity in AMZN options. No concerns.
!Sizing: Given the binary event risk, use reduced size for premium-selling strategies (Iron Condor, Put Spread). The calendar spread has defined, lower risk.

What to Watch

?Spot price action relative to the $205-$210 pinning zone in the days leading to earnings.
?Any unusual activity in 4/02 options, especially OTM puts, for clues on tail-risk hedging.
?The IV term structure for the 4/02 expiration; a further rise would improve premium-selling entry.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.