Earnings Verdict
Earnings confirmed for 4/02 AMC (7 days out). IV is elevated for the 4/02 expiration (36.2% vs ~33% nearby), creating a clear IV crush setup. Historical data shows AMZN tends to under-move its expected move, and the stock is in a pinning regime, favoring premium-selling strategies.
base 5; +1 for confirmed earnings date (4/02) and sharp IV kink; +0.5 for historical under-move tendency; -0 for elevated but not extreme IV; -0 for mixed flow vs prior bullish
Most important: Earnings date is now explicit (4/02), confirmed by the sharp IV kink. The 4.2% expected move is elevated, but history suggests a high probability of an under-move.
📅Earnings date confirmed for 4/02 AMC via explicit expected move and IV kink.
⚠️Flow regime shifted from strongly bullish to mixed/negative net premium. Monitor for increased put hedging into the event.
💰IV for 4/02 is 36.2% vs ~33% for nearby expirations, indicating a ~3-4 vol point premium for the event.
Regime Classification
Vol Regime
Normal (IV 39%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$88.9M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $-6.9M, P/C 0.87)
Spot vs MP
Above max pain by 1.6% (spot $208.28 vs MP $205)
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-04-02 (7 days)explicit (expected move and IV kink at 4/02)
Expected moves:
- 4/02 (7d): ±$8.83 (4.2%) [$199.45 - $217.10]
IV Setup
Term structure: Sharp kink at 4/02 expiration: IV jumps to 36.2% from 33.9% (4/01) and 30.3% (4/30). IV then declines to 33.8% for 4/10.
Crush estimate: ~5-7 vol pts post-event, back to ~31-33% (consistent with 4/10 levels).
Skew: Mixed flow (P/C 0.87) with significant net put premium at $210. However, large bullish call flow at $215 and OTM calls ($100, $105) suggests complex positioning.
Historical Context
Historical earnings data not available.
Key Levels
1Max Pain: $205 (near-term)
2Spot: $208.28
3EM 4/02 Lower Bound: $199.45
4EM 4/02 Upper Bound: $217.10
5Call OI Wall: $260
6Gamma Pin Zone: $205-$210
Flow Highlights
Large net put premium at $210 strike (-$6.6M). Heavy put volume in 3/27 $210P (30,951 vol, 5.6x OI) with low IV (18.8%).
Likely closing of short put positions or pinning-related flow near max pain, not new bearish bets. The low IV suggests these are not earnings plays.
Significant bullish call premium at $215 (+$2.38M net) and far OTM calls ($100, $105, $120).
Institutional bullish hedging or financing trades. The $215 call flow aligns with the upper expected move bound.
Unusual put buying in 4/01 $215P (1,041 vol, 10.3x OI) with very low IV (21.8%).
Possible closing of positions or specific hedging ahead of earnings. The low IV again suggests it's not a volatility bet.
Strategies
Iron Condor (Premium Sell)
Sell 4/02 $199.50 Put / Buy 4/02 $194.50 Put | Sell 4/02 $217 Call / Buy 4/02 $222 Call
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before earnings (3/31-4/01).
Capitalizes on elevated IV for the 4/02 expiration. Strikes calibrated just inside the expected move, providing a ~1.5% buffer on each side. The pinning regime supports contained moves.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the expected move bounds ($199.45-$217.10) and IV crushes post-earnings.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond the short strikes, especially below $199.50.
Put Calendar Spread (IV Crush Play)
Buy 4/01 $208 Put & Sell 4/02 $208 Put
Trigger: Enter now or on a spot move toward $210.
Exploits the IV differential (33.9% vs 36.2%) between the two expirations bracketing earnings. Positive theta play that benefits specifically from the IV crush on the short 4/02 leg.
Outperforms: Stock is near $208 at 4/01 expiry and the IV in the 4/02 put collapses post-earnings.
Underperforms: Large immediate move away from $208 before 4/01 expiry.
Bull Put Spread (Pinning & Flow)
Sell 4/02 $200 Put & Buy 4/02 $195 Put
Trigger: Enter on any pullback toward $207.
Aligns with the stock's position above max pain and the pinning regime. Strike is just below the lower expected move bound, offering a defined-risk way to sell elevated IV with a bullish bias.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $200 through expiration. Benefits from IV crush and pinning above max pain ($205).
Underperforms: Stock gaps below $200 on earnings.
Risk Assessment
!Gap Risk: The 4.2% expected move is elevated. A guidance surprise could cause a gap beyond the EM bounds. Watch the $199.45 and $217.10 levels.
!IV Crush Magnitude: Estimated crush of 5-7 vol points is modest. If overall market volatility (VIX) is high, the post-earnings IV may not drop to 31%.
!Flow Shift: Net flow has turned mixed/negative (-$6.9M) vs. prior strong bullish flow. This could indicate increased hedging or a more neutral institutional stance.
!Liquidity: Excellent liquidity in AMZN options. No concerns.
!Sizing: Given the binary event risk, use reduced size for premium-selling strategies (Iron Condor, Put Spread). The calendar spread has defined, lower risk.
What to Watch
?Spot price action relative to the $205-$210 pinning zone in the days leading to earnings.
?Any unusual activity in 4/02 options, especially OTM puts, for clues on tail-risk hedging.
?The IV term structure for the 4/02 expiration; a further rise would improve premium-selling entry.