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AMD

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Close $521.54EOD only
Max Pain
$490.00
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$31.35
6.0% from close
Price Gap
-31.54
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
79
High premium
P/C OI
1.12
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 2, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 2, 2026 close
AMD Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 15, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

7.5/10. High-vol, dealer-pinning regime with bullish flow makes defined-risk premium sales and directional bullish diagonals primary plays. Best strategy: harvest elevated near-term call premium with defined risk (put credit or call diagonal) while respecting the +$91.4M GEX pin bands. Key risk: guidance or macro shock that punctures dealer pinning and drives a >10% gap outside the EM guardrails.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 14.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Front-cycle GEX concentrations (notably +$14.6M at $260 and +$7.8M at $250) are likely to pin/anchor price into the event window unless a guidance shock breaks that support.
📌Max pain across near expirations is $225.00 — a long-term structural magnet well below spot, but short-term pinning is concentrated at $250–$260.
🔥Top premium flow: $260 net $18,054,605 and $270 net $11,349,974 — heavy call buying is fueling upside pinning and raises short-call risk for sellers.
🛡️Historical beat rate 75% (3/4) — supports bullish-leaning defined-risk trades but does not eliminate gap risk on guidance.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 28,229 (22.5% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-05 (20 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-17 (2d): ±$8.52 (3.3%)
  • 2026-04-24 (9d): ±$16.85 (6.5%)
  • 2026-05-01 (16d): ±$22.58 (8.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front expirations are cheaper than the 23–64d tenors (2d ATM 46.6% → 9d 49.7% → 16d 50.9% then a bump to 58.0% at 23d), so near-term vol is elevated into the early May earnings ladder but the biggest imbalance sits in the 3–5 week bucket.

Crush estimate: Moderate-to-high crush for the 2026-05-01 and 2026-05-08 cycles (estimated sizable IV drop from ~51%–59% to lower post-release levels across front two expirations).

Skew: Put OI is concentrated deep below spot (notably $200 puts), but near-term call premium dominates flow (heavy call premium at $260/$270/$255). Upside participation is priced and bought; downside skew exists structurally but immediate skew shows richer calls in front cycles.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: AMD has historically beaten the EM baseline — beat rate 75% (3/4). Recent realized moves have sometimes been smaller than implied two-week moves, but downside guidance remains the primary gap risk.

Directional bias: Slight upside bias into earnings given bullish net premium (+$133.6M) and positive flow on calls concentrated just above spot (largest premium at $260/$270), consistent with the 75% beat rate.

Key Levels

1$200.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $249.59/$266.64; 1w $241.27/$274.97
3Max pain pins: $225 (2026-04-17); $225 (2026-04-24); $225 (2026-05-01)

Flow Highlights

Concentrated call premium at $260 and $270 in the front cycles

Large buyer-driven call premium (Top Premium Flow: $260 net $18,054,605; $270 net $11,349,974) combined with GEX +$14.6M at $260 increases pinning pressure around $260-$270 range.

Heavy put OI centered at $200

Structural downside protection exists (Top OI: $200 PUT OI=28,229) placing the gamma flip and deep put floor near $200, reducing tail risk for moderate drawdowns but leaving a wide gap if broken.

Net premium is strongly bullish (+$133.6M) with P/C volume ratio 0.79

Market participants favor upside exposure; selling near-term vol or buying directional upside is aligned with orderflow.

Strategies

Defined-risk put credit (harvest bullish premium)
Sell 2026-04-24 $245.00/$232.50 put spread
Credit: $1.88-$2.29
Max loss: $10.21
Max gain: $2.29
BE: $242.71
Trigger: Tighten or close if spot trades below the short put strike or if IV collapses post-release; remove leg or roll down if price breaches $241.27 (1w EM lower).
Best risk-adjusted way to monetize bullish dealer pinning and heavy call-driven net premium while keeping defined downside exposure to a guidance shock.
Outperforms: Sell a near-term put credit inside the 1–2 week EM (use strikes around the 0.25 delta, DTE 9–37) and hedge with a lower put to cap risk. Targets align with the deterministic support $235.54 and EM guardrails ($241.27 lower 1w).
Underperforms: Break below support threatens short-put strike.
Bullish call diagonal (sell front calls, own long-dated call)
Sell 2026-04-17 $262.50 call / buy 2026-06-18 $280.00 call
Debit: $11.45-$13.99
Max loss: $13.99
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Buy back short calls pre-earnings if momentum accelerates; widen or roll the long leg if stock gaps above short strikes.
Captures front-term premium where calls are most expensive (notably $260/$270 flows) while retaining upside convexity with longer-dated calls.
Outperforms: Sell near-term calls in the 2–16d window around 0.30–0.40 delta (front-cycle IV peak) and buy longer-dated calls (64–338d) to keep upside exposure and benefit from any realized move above $260-$275.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Short iron condor inside EM guardrails
Sell 2026-04-24 $245.00/$230.00 put wing and $275.00/$290.00 call wing
Credit: $3.82-$4.67
Max loss: $10.33
Max gain: $4.67
BE: 240.33 / 279.67
Trigger: Cut losses early if bid/ask widens or stock moves toward a short strike; consider turning into an iron fly or rolling wings if IV collapses asymmetrically.
When you expect pinning and range-bound action, an iron condor extracts premium while defining tail exposure—works with the 1–2 week EM rails ($241.27–$274.97 / $235.54–$280.69).
Outperforms: Sell a put and call roughly at the 0.25–0.20 delta with wings sized to the 1–2 week EM boundaries (short expirations). Avoid widening wings too far given possible post-earnings IV jumps.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: Guidance miss could gap below EM 1w lower bound $241.27 or even 2-week lower $235.54 — these would stress short-premium structures.
!IV crush: Long-vol trades face material IV decay after 2026-05-05; front-to-1m ATM IV moves from ~51% (16d) and 58% (23d) so expect sizable repricing.
!Liquidity: Near-term expirations (2026-04-17, 2026-04-24, 2026-05-01) are liquid, but far wings and deep OTM wings can have wide spreads—use defined risk or smaller size.
!Sizing: Because Total GEX is +$91.4M and net premium is +$133.6M, position size should respect dealer gamma concentration—avoid outsized single-contract exposure that conflicts with strong pinning bands.

What to Watch

?Front-expiry IV changes (2d→16d ATM IV: 46.6%→50.9%) — flattening/increase suggests market re-pricing of event risk.
?Spot interaction with GEX pin bands: $260 (+$14.6M) and $250 (+$7.8M); failure to hold these levels increases downside risk toward deterministic support $235.54.
?Unusual activity in front puts (notably high activity in 2026-04-17 puts at $255/$257.5) which may indicate directional protective positioning or aggressive buying of downside gamma.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.