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AMD

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Close $516.10EOD only
Max Pain
$460.00
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$41.42
8.0% from close
Price Gap
-56.10
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
89
High premium
P/C OI
1.10
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
AMD Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 14, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings on 2026-05-05 (TBD) in ~21 days. Regime is High Vol + Pinning with heavy dealer GEX (+$93.0M) concentrated around near-term strikes — selling premium (iron-condor/condor) into earnings is the preferred strategy. Key risk is a gap beyond EM rails driven by guidance or market re-rating: dealers may pin into the $250–$260 zone but a >~5% one-sided gap would blow through gamma supports.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 15.9% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18.4
Most important: Dealer GEX +$93.0M concentrated at 250/255/260 — watch IV trajectory into that pin band
📌Dealer GEX +$93.0M concentrated at 250/255/260 — expect pinning behavior into near expiries
⚠️Max Pain trend ~$220 is well below spot; outside-10% pins are present but not relevant for immediate expiries
💰Top premium flow: $250 call net $25,386,640 — large call-skewed flow is bullish and funds dealer hedging

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (Avg IV 62.4%; ATM 48.6% for 3d)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$93.0M concentrated near-spot)
Flow Regime
Bullish (Top premium flow strongly call-net; Net Premium $179.4M)
Spot vs MP
Above (Spot $255.07 vs Max Pain trend ~$220)
Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Below ~$200 dealers flip to amplifying moves; current put OI concentration 27,969 at $200 places structural put floor $140-$200

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-05 (21 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-17 (3d): 77$10.20 (4.0%) [$244.87 - $265.27]
  • 2026-04-24 (10d): 77$17.52 (6.9%) [$237.55 - $272.60]
  • 2026-05-01 (17d): 77$22.77 (8.9%) [$232.30 - $277.85]

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term ATM IV is 48.6% (3d) rising slightly out the curve to 49.9% (10d) and 51.3% (17d) with ATM Avg IV 62.4% overall — elevated front-month skew is present but not explosive.

Crush estimate: ~10-15 vol pts from earnings-edge peaks back toward 48-50% (post-event ATM 3d shows 48.6%)

Skew: Call-heavy flow has pushed call premium higher at 250/260; puts are concentrated deeper (200s) but near-term OTM puts (245/250/255) show unusual activity

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 recent quarters beat)

Avg move vs expected: Not explicitly provided in dataset; historical EPS surprises are small-to-moderate (examples: +0.16, +0.02, +0.03, -0.01).

Directional bias: Leans positive post-earnings (3 of 4 quarters with EPS beats)

Key Levels

1$250.00
2$255.00
3$260.00
4$270.00
5$280.00

Flow Highlights

Heavy call premium at $250.00 (Call $38,219,005 / Put $12,832,366 / Net $25,386,640)

Aggressive bullish/options buyers or structured sellers concentrating premium at $250 — supports pinning around $250 via dealer hedging

Large near-term GEX +$14.0M at $250.00; +$6.6M at $255.00; +$11.2M at $260.00

Dealer delta hedging is most concentrated in the $250–$260 band; expect pin behavior toward these strikes into expiry

Strategies

Short iron condor (earnings credit)
Sell 4/17 250C / Buy 4/17 260C AND Sell 4/17 245P / Buy 4/17 240P
Credit: $3.80-$5.20
Max loss: $6.20
Max gain: $5.20
BE: Upside: 255.20; Downside: 241.20
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before 4/17 if IV remains elevated and put-call flow remains call-skewed
Concentrated GEX at 250/255/260 and heavy call premium make selling wings attractive; collects large credit vs short time-to-event (3d EM ±$10.20)
Outperforms: AMD stays inside the tight EM rails (~$244.87-$265.27) into and through the 4/17 expiry; dealer pinning keeps price in band
Underperforms: There is a >~5% directional gap on earnings/guidance or a rapid IV spike that widens spreads
Long straddle (earnings volatility play)
Buy 4/17 255 Straddle (Buy 255C + Buy 255P)
Debit: $10.00-$10.50
Max loss: $10.50
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Downside ~244.50 / Upside ~265.50
Trigger: Enter the day before earnings if you expect a move > EM and IV has not yet repriced dramatically
ATM straddle cost (~$10) roughly equals the 3d EM ±$10.20 — requires a larger-than-EM move but benefits from unpredictable guidance or market reaction
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds EM by >~30% (i.e., >~$13 from spot) or after-guidance gap expands volatility
Underperforms: Stock pins in the $250–$260 band and IV crushes, or move is smaller than EM
Directional call-debit spread (bullish skew capture)
Buy 4/24 255C / Sell 4/24 270C (debit call spread)
Debit: $4.80-$5.80
Max loss: $5.80
Max gain: $10.20
BE: $259.80
Trigger: Enter if post-earnings IV falls but stock holds >$260 or on constructive pre-earnings flow with sustained calls buying
Longer-dated vertical reduces IV crush vs a straddle, leverages call-heavy flow (250/260/270) and sits within dealer pin band
Outperforms: Bullish beat/guidance drives a multi-week grind higher above $260 toward $270
Underperforms: Immediate post-earnings gap down or IV crush erodes premium before directional move

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: Expected 3d EM ±$10.20 (4.0%) but guidance-driven moves or macro shocks can exceed EM and blow through dealer pin levels.
!IV crush: ATM IV for 4/17 is 48.6% — buying a straddle requires a move meaningfully > EM to overcome post-earnings IV decline.
!Liquidity/spread risk: Front-month strikes (250/255/260) are very liquid but wide spreads can occur around event; use limit pricing.
!Sizing: Given high GEX concentration, size skew-sensitive trades smaller (e.g., one-third normal) to avoid large dealer-hedging gamma events.
!Pin risk vs trend: Heavy call premium can create short-term pinning; if directional flow persistently buys calls, pin may shift upward toward $260–$270.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into the 250–260 pin band (watch 3d ATM IV 48.6% vs 10d/17d levels)
?Unusual put buys at 247.50/252.50/255 (listed unusual activity) that could indicate protective hedging
?Large call premium prints at $250/$260/$240 — continuation suggests dealer pin and possible skew compression
?Pre-earnings delta and size at $250 (OI 18,243 calls) and $260 (OI 11,831 calls)
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 14, 2026.
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Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.