AMAT Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

4 / 10

base 5; -1 for mixed flow (P/C 1.26 vs bullish prem); -0.5 for spot below max pain; +0.5 for GEX pinning support

Watch next session: $360P 4/2 flow for near-term direction; Spot reaction near $337.50 (large call premium strike)

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$30.9M bullish

P/C volume ratio: 1.26 — put-dominant volume

P/C OI ratio: 0.96 — nearly balanced positioning

A significant contradiction: net premium is strongly bullish, but volume flow is put-dominant. This suggests large, concentrated bullish bets are being offset by more frequent, smaller bearish or hedging activity. The overall regime is mixed with a pinning GEX.

Notable Prints

AMAT 4/2 $360 Put

Vol: 1,091

OI: 140

Vol/OI: 7.8x

IV: 50.2%

Notional: ~$39.3M (1091 * 100 * $360)

Intent: Directional bearish bet or protective hedge

Dual read: Bought (bearish) or sold (bullish cash-secured put)

Read-through: This is the most significant single flow. A $360 strike is well above spot ($341.79), suggesting a trader is either hedging a long position against a sharp drop or making a high-conviction bet on a decline before Friday. The 7.8x OI turnover and 50% IV (below the 65% average) lean toward a directional purchase.

AMAT 4/10 $395 Call

Vol: 309

OI: 104

Vol/OI: 3.0x

IV: 48.7%

Notional: ~$12.2M (309 * 100 * $395)

Intent: Long-dated, OTM call buying (bullish)

Dual read: Bought (bullish) or sold covered call

Read-through: Part of a cluster of bullish premium flow in deep OTM calls ($270, $85, $130). This $395 call, 15.6% OTM, is a low-delta, high-leverage bet on a significant rally over the next 10 days. The sub-50% IV suggests it was bought, not sold.

AMAT 4/2 $185 Put

Vol: 366

OI: 188

Vol/OI: 1.9x

IV: 262.5%

Notional: ~$6.8M (366 * 100 * $185)

Intent: Extreme OTM put purchase (tail risk hedge)

Dual read: Almost certainly a purchase given 262% IV; selling would be irrational.

Read-through: A pure insurance play. This is a bet on a catastrophic drop (~46% decline) by Friday. The enormous IV confirms this was an expensive premium paid for protection, not a sale. This is a clear, albeit small, hedge signal.

AMAT 4/17 $337.50 Call

Vol: 390

OI: 232

Vol/OI: 1.7x

IV: 63.7%

Notional: ~$13.2M (390 * 100 * $337.50)

Intent: Near-ATM call flow (directional or roll)

Dual read: Bought (bullish) or sold (neutral/covered call)

Read-through: This strike aligns with the #4 top premium flow strike ($1.3M net bullish). Activity here at a strike slightly below spot suggests traders are positioning for a bounce. The IV near the average makes intent ambiguous, but the net premium context leans bullish.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Deep OTM calls ($270, $85, $130, $395) show large net premium inflow, suggesting leveraged bullish bets or call spreads.

Put additions: Significant OI clusters at $300 (3,112) and $250 (3,034) puts act as major downside magnets/walls. The $360P 4/2 print is a new, large bearish position.

GEX/DEX consistency: Partially. Positive GEX (+$3.3M) suggests pinning support, which aligns with the heavy OTM call buying (dealers are long gamma from those calls). However, the put-dominant volume flow contradicts the pure GEX signal.

OI clusters: Upside: $490C (5,979), $430C (5,190) — distant call walls. Downside: $300P (3,112), $250P (3,034) — major support levels. Spot is currently between the $300 put wall and the $352 max pain.

Hedging evidence: Yes. The $185P 4/2 (tail hedge) and the large $360P 4/2 are clear hedging signals. The put-heavy volume ratio (1.26) further suggests defensive activity.

Max pain context: Spot ($341.79) is 3% below the nearest expiration max pain ($352.50). The overall MP trend is falling ($352 → $310), indicating longer-dated positioning is shifting bearish, pulling spot lower.

Signal vs Noise

~The massive net premium in deep OTM calls ($270, $85, $130) is likely part of bullish call spreads or far-dated speculative bets, not immediate directional signals for spot.

~High OI at $490C and $430C are likely legacy positions from much lower price levels, not fresh bullish bets.

~Some of the put volume (P/C 1.26) could be dealers hedging the long gamma from the OTM call purchases, not outright bearish bets.

Key Conclusions

⚠️Flow is conflicted: bullish premium vs. bearish volume. This indicates large, concentrated bullish bets are being met with widespread hedging/selling.

📌Positive GEX and pinning regime suggest mean-reverting forces near current levels, with $300 as a major put support wall.

🛡️Clear hedging evidence: large $360P purchase and extreme OTM $185P tail-risk hedge indicate institutional defense is being raised.

🎯Watch $352.50 (max pain) and $300 (put OI wall) as key near-term magnetic levels.

Read the Flow analysis for AMAT for 2026-03-31. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.