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ADBE

Adobe Inc.Close $253.37EOD only
Max Pain
$250.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.72
3.0% from close
Price Gap
-3.37
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
50
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.74
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ADBE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
ADBE Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for April 2, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings likely on 6/11, 72 days out. IV for the 6/18 expiration (79 DTE) is elevated at 45.6% vs. 38-40% for nearer expirations, indicating premium selling opportunities. The stock is in a trending gamma regime with a low gamma flip at $220, suggesting vulnerability to downside moves. Historical EPS beat rate is 100% but with small surprises.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1.5 for clear earnings date inference from term structure kink; +0 for normal vol regime
Most important: Term structure shows a clear IV kink at the 6/18 expiration, confirming the market is pricing earnings risk for that period.
📅Earnings date inferred as ~6/11 based on IV kink at 6/18 (79 DTE) expiration.
⚠️Massive negative net premium flow (-$58.9M) driven by OTM put buying signals institutional hedging concern.
📊Historical EPS beat rate is 100%, but surprises have been small (+$0.02-$0.03).

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal (IV 49%)
Gamma Regime
Trending (GEX $-0.6M — pro-cyclical)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $-58.9M, P/C 1.14)
Spot vs MP
Slightly below max pain $245 (spot $243.08)
Gamma flip: ~$220.00 — Below $220, negative GEX suggests dealers may amplify downward moves.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-06-11 (72 days)inferred

Expected moves:

  • 6/18 (79d): ±$40.15 (16.5%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Clear kink at 6/18 expiration (45.6% vs. 38-40% for Apr/May expirations). IV rises steadily into longer-dated expirations.

Crush estimate: ~5-7 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~40%

Skew: Net premium flow heavily negative, dominated by large put purchases at strikes $320-$360. P/C volume ratio of 1.14 shows more put volume.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Data not provided for historical price moves vs. expected move.

Directional bias: Data not provided for post-earnings gap direction.

Key Levels

1$220 gamma flip & major put OI
2$235 max pain for 4/02
3$260 major call OI
4EM 6/18: $205 - $285

Flow Highlights

Massive net put premium at $340 (-$25.3M), $360 (-$7.1M), $320 (-$5.4M). Large block purchases of $350P 6/18 (300 vol vs 100 OI).

Institutional hedging or bearish positioning for mid-year, likely tied to earnings risk. Suggests perceived downside tail risk.

Significant net call premium at $175 (+$4.7M) and $130 (+$3.7M).

Likely financing for the OTM put purchases (e.g., risk reversals or collars), not outright bullish bets.

Strategies

Short Strangle (Premium Sale)
Sell $210 PUT / Sell $280 CALL exp 6/18
Credit: $12.50-$15.00
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $12.50
BE: $197.50 / $292.50 (approx, based on $12.5 credit)
Trigger: Enter 4-6 weeks before earnings (late April/early May).
Sell elevated IV (45.6%) at the earnings expiration. Strikes are placed outside the expected move ($40.15) to provide a cushion. High historical EPS beat rate suggests lower risk of a catastrophic miss.
Outperforms: Stock stays within a wide range ($210-$280) through earnings; IV crushes post-event.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond breakevens; sustained high IV.
Put Ratio Spread (Bearish Bias / Hedge)
Buy 1x $235 PUT / Sell 2x $220 PUT exp 6/18
Credit: $1.50-$3.00
Max loss: $13.50
Max gain: $1.50
BE: $233.50 (approx, based on $1.5 credit)
Trigger: On a rally towards $250-$255, or if bearish flow intensifies.
Capitalizes on high put skew and OI concentration at $220/$235. Generates a credit for a bearish play targeting the gamma flip level ($220). Aligns with heavy institutional put flow.
Outperforms: Stock declines to the $220-$235 zone post-earnings.
Underperforms: Stock rallies sharply above $235 or crashes below $206.50.
Long Calendar Spread (IV Crush Play)
Sell $245 CALL exp 6/18 / Buy $245 CALL exp 7/17
Max loss: Debit paid
Max gain: Uncapped if IV term structure flattens post-earnings
BE: Complex; depends on IV differential and spot move.
Trigger: Enter 3-4 weeks before earnings.
Exploits the IV kink. Sell the elevated IV of the earnings week (6/18, 45.6%) against a longer-dated, lower-IV (43.5%) option. Profits from the normalization of the term structure post-earnings.
Outperforms: Stock is near $245 at June expiration; IV crushes on the short 6/18 leg more than the long 7/17 leg.
Underperforms: Stock makes a large move, or IV rises across the curve.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: The 16.5% expected move is significant. A break outside the $210-$280 strangle range would cause losses.
!IV Crush Impact: Critical for short premium/calendar strategies. If VIX remains elevated, crush may be less pronounced.
!Liquidity: Excellent OI and strike availability. Top flow is in large blocks, indicating institutional presence.
!Sizing: Use reduced size due to the long time horizon (72 days) and potential for large moves. The trending gamma regime warns of accelerated moves.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory for the 6/18 expiration as earnings approach.
?Spot price action relative to the $220 gamma flip and $245 max pain.
?Any unusual activity in the $260 call or $235/$220 put strikes.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.