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AAPL

Apple Inc.Close $263.40EOD only
Max Pain
$257.50
Next expiry Apr 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.84
1.1% from close
Price Gap
-5.90
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.71
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AAPL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 16, 2026 close
AAPL Theta Report
Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Conservative — small, defined-risk bites (1–2% of portfolio per trade) to limit gap/margin exposure
Primary: Sell 30–45D put-credit spreads or iron-condors in 2–8 week expiries; avoid front-week/0–7D due to short-gamma
Invalidation: Any of: front-week IV re-steepen >+10 vol pts, spot gap >4% intraday away from $258–$260 pins, or bid/ask spread blowouts >3x typical — each can trigger outsized losses or margin blowups
Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 4.9% from MP; +1 VIX 17

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
ATM IV depressed vs VIX on multi-week tenors but extreme short-dated dislocation (0–7D) with very low quoted ATM IV and steep near-date skew.
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Favorable for premium-selling in 2–8 week expiries where term IV is higher and skew supports defined-risk wings; avoid front-week despite overall elevated term IV.

📌Max-pain concentration at $258–$260 aligns with concentrated dealer OI
⚠️Do NOT sell into 0–7D: extreme front-week IV dislocation creates short-gamma and execution risk

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+1.4B)

OI concentrations: Max-pain pins: $258 (4/17), $260 (4/20,4/22); concentrated calls at $295–$310; no deep put wall 30% below spot.

Verdict: Elevated pin risk at $258–$260 given OI concentration and positive GEX; increases chance of pin if move modest, but large gaps can invalidate pin and cause rapid repricing.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Iron condor
Sell 2026-05-15 $250.00/$240.00 put wing and $290.00/$300.00 call wing
Sell 5/15 250/240 put and 290/300 call wings to collect multi-week IV; limits tail risk vs naked spreads.
Credit: $2.02-$2.48
Max loss: $7.52
BE: 247.52 / 292.48
Mgmt: Close or hedge if front-week IV re-steepens >+10 vol pts, quoted spreads >3x, or spot gaps >4%; tighten if spot moves toward wings.
#2
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-05-15 $255.00/$245.00 put spread
Sell 5/15 255/245 put spread to collect premium while avoiding short-dated skew and gamma.
Credit: $1.37-$1.67
Max loss: $8.33
BE: $253.33
Mgmt: Same hard stops: exit/hedge on IV re-steepen >+10 pts, wide spreads, or >4% gap from pin region.

Risk Alerts

!Front-week IV dislocation -> execution/pricing oddities; avoid selling 0–7D
!Wide spreads/liquidity thinness can blow up fills and margins (monitor quoted spreads; veto if >3x normal)
!Gap risk: plan for spot moves >4% which can cause rapid mark-to-market and margin calls
!IV re-steepen >+10 vol pts front-week is a hard stop — exit or hedge immediately

Read the Theta analysis for AAPL for 2026-04-17. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.