AAPL
Apple Inc.Close $302.25EOD onlyMax Pain
$292.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.44
1.5% from close
Price Gap
-9.75
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
22
Low premium
P/C OI
0.70
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot
This page reflects AAPL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.
Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
AAPL Theta Report
Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026
Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.
You are viewing an older report from April 2, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 20, 2026.
View latest reportTheta Verdict
Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Sell put spreads and iron condors targeting the $245-$260 range.
Invalidation: Close below $245 (near-term support) or sustained move above $260.
Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +1 strong pinning GEX; +1 normal IV; +1 spot above max pain; -1 upcoming earnings in 4 weeks
IV Environment
IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
IV 29.1% — Normal for AAPL. No direct VIX comparison provided.
Favorable?
Yes
Term structure: Steep ramp from 0d to 15d, then flat. Hump at 29-36 DTE (~29.5%).
📊Normal IV provides fair, consistent premium for standard theta plays.
⛰️IV term structure hump at ~30 DTE (5/01, 5/08) offers richest premium for standard strategies.
Pin Risk Assessment
Spot vs MP: Above max pain by 2.4% (spot $255.92 vs MP $250)
GEX regime: Pinning (Total GEX +$288.9M)
OI concentrations: Major Call Walls: $280 (80K OI), $300 (60K OI). Major Put Support: $240 (41K OI Call). Near-term strikes: $250, $252.50, $255.
Verdict: Favorable — Strong positive GEX creates a powerful magnet effect, supporting range-bound credit positions. Spot is slightly above max pain, suggesting a mild gravitational pull lower toward $250.
Premium Opportunities
#1
put spread
Sell $250/$245 Put Spread for 5/01 Expiration (29 DTE)
Spot is above max pain with strong positive GEX pinning. The $250 strike is the dominant max pain level and a key support. The 5/01 expiration captures the IV hump (~29.5%) for superior premium. The spread is well outside the 29-day expected move low ($239.22).
Credit: $1.25-$1.50
Max loss: $3.50
BE: $248.75
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Roll down/out if AAPL closes below $250. Exit entirely on a close below $245.
#2
iron condor
Sell $245 Put / Sell $265 Call for 4/24 Expiration (22 DTE). Use $240/$270 wings.
Strong pinning regime favors range-bound action. Short strikes ($245/$265) are just outside the 22-day expected move ($243.59 - $268.24). The put side targets the $250 max pain magnet, while the call side stays below the massive $280 call wall. Positive GEX suppresses large moves.
Credit: $2.00-$2.40
Max loss: $3.00
BE: 243.00 / 267.00
Mgmt: Close either leg at 50% max profit. Manage the tested side independently (roll untested wing in). Close entire position if spot breaches a short strike.
#3
cash-secured put
Sell $240 Put for 6/18 Expiration (77 DTE)
For capital-secure sellers willing to take assignment. The $240 strike is at major OI support (41K calls) and 6.2% below spot. It collects solid premium from ~29% IV with ample time decay. Strong pinning environment reduces near-term assignment risk. Strike is below the 6/18 max pain of $240.
Credit: $6.50-$7.50
Max loss: $23250.00
BE: $233.50
Mgmt: Roll down/out at 21 DTE if strike is threatened (spot < $245). Close at 70% profit. Be prepared to accept shares at $240.
#4
call credit spread
Sell $260/$265 Call Spread for 4/17 Expiration (15 DTE)
Defined-risk bearish tilt. The $260 short call is at the top of the 15-day expected move ($265.99) and a psychological resistance. Massive positive GEX and distant $280/$300 call OI walls cap upside momentum. Spot's position above max pain suggests a mild pullback is more likely than a breakout.
Credit: $0.85-$1.05
Max loss: $4.00
BE: $260.90
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Exit if AAPL closes above $260. Do not hold through earnings (4/30).
Risk Alerts
!Earnings estimated 4/30 (in ~4 weeks) — DO NOT sell naked options through this event. Begin exiting or rolling all short premium positions 1-2 weeks prior.
!Spot moved from AT max pain ($250) to 2.4% ABOVE it ($255.92). The positive GEX magnet is still strong, but a break above $260 could accelerate as dealers sell to hedge.
!Unusual Activity: High-volume put buying in weekly $250 and $252.50 strikes for 4/02 and 4/06. This indicates institutional hedging or bearish bets just below current spot, reinforcing the $250 support level.
!Massive Positive GEX (+$288.9M) pinning regime is a double-edged sword. It suppresses volatility now but could lead to accelerated, disorderly moves if key support ($245) or resistance ($260) breaks as dealers reverse hedges.
!IV is normal, not high. Premiums are fair but not extravagant. Avoid over-leveraging.
!Ex-dividend date not provided. Monitor for announcements as selling near-term calls carries assignment risk if the dividend exceeds remaining time value.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.
What the reports do
Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.
How traders use them
Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.
What to remember
These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.
If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.