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AAPL

Apple Inc.Close $302.25EOD only

Max Pain

$292.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.44

1.5% from close

Price Gap

-9.75

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.70

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AAPL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

AAPL Theta Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 20, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

7 / 10

base 5; +1 strong pinning GEX; +1 normal IV; +1 spot at max pain; -1 upcoming earnings in 5 weeks

IV Environment

IV Regime

Normal

IV vs VIX

IV 30.4% — Normal for AAPL. No direct VIX comparison provided.

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Humped at 5/01 (31.2%) and 5/08 (31.3%), elevated vs near-term weeks.

📊Normal IV provides consistent, non-speculative premium.

⛰️IV term structure hump at 32-39 DTE offers richest premium for standard theta plays.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At max pain $250 (spot $248.83)

GEX regime: Pinning (Total GEX +$70.5M)

OI concentrations: Major Call Walls: $280 (80K OI), $300 (59K OI). Major Put Support: $240 (41K OI Call).

Verdict: Highly Favorable — Spot at max pain with extremely strong positive GEX creates a powerful magnet effect, strongly supporting range-bound credit positions.

Premium Opportunities

put spread

Sell $245/$240 Put Spread for 5/01 Expiration (32 DTE)

Spot is at max pain with massive positive GEX, creating a strong pin. The $245 strike is just below spot and a key level. The 5/01 expiration captures the IV hump (31.2%) for superior premium. The spread is well outside the 32-day expected move low ($230.66).

Credit: $1.40-$1.60

Max loss: $3.50

BE: $243.60

Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Roll down/out if AAPL closes below $245. Exit entirely on a close below $240.

iron condor

Sell $240 Put / Sell $260 Call for 4/24 Expiration (25 DTE). Use $235/$265 wings.

Extremely strong pinning regime favors range-bound action. Short strikes ($240/$260) are outside the 25-day expected move ($234.63 - $263.03) and align with key OI levels ($240 call OI, $260 is a psychological level). Massive positive GEX (+$70.5M) suppresses large moves. High probability of success.

Credit: $2.20-$2.60

Max loss: $2.50

BE: 237.60 / 262.40

Mgmt: Close either leg at 50% max profit. Manage the tested side independently (roll untested wing in). Close entire position if spot breaches a short strike.

cash-secured put

Sell $235 Put for 6/18 Expiration (80 DTE)

For capital-secure sellers willing to take assignment. The $235 strike is below major support (6/18 max pain $240) and 5.6% below spot. It collects solid premium from 30.2% IV with ample time decay. High OI at $240 provides a buffer. Strong pinning environment reduces near-term assignment risk.

Credit: $5.80-$6.40

Max loss: $22920.00

BE: $229.20

Mgmt: Roll down/out at 21 DTE if strike is threatened (spot < $240). Close at 70% profit. Be prepared to accept shares at $235.

call credit spread

Sell $260/$265 Call Spread for 4/17 Expiration (18 DTE)

Defined-risk bearish hedge. The $260 short call is at the top of the 18-day expected move ($260.88) and aligns with a psychological resistance. Massive positive GEX and distant $280/$300 call OI cap upside momentum. Net premium flow is negative for calls above $260, suggesting selling pressure.

Credit: $0.90-$1.10

Max loss: $4.00

BE: $260.90

Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Exit if AAPL closes above $260. Do not hold through earnings (4/30).

Risk Alerts

!Earnings estimated 4/30 (in ~5 weeks) — DO NOT sell naked options through this event. Begin exiting or rolling all short premium positions 1-2 weeks prior.

!Spot is AT max pain ($250). While this reinforces the pin, a break away from this level could be sharp once the magnetic pull is overcome.

!Unusual Activity: High-volume, high-IV put buying in weekly $262.50 and $265 strikes for 4/02. This is likely speculative hedging but indicates some near-term bearish sentiment above the current range.

!Massive Positive GEX (+$70.5M) pinning regime is a double-edged sword. It suppresses volatility now but could lead to accelerated, disorderly moves if key support ($240) or resistance ($260) breaks as dealers reverse hedges.

!IV is normal, not high. Premiums are fair but not extravagant. Avoid over-leveraging.

!Ex-dividend date not provided. Monitor for announcements as selling near-term calls carries assignment risk if the dividend exceeds remaining time value.

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.