base 5; +1 strong pinning GEX; +1 normal IV; -1 spot below max pain; -1 negative premium flow near spot
Term structure: Humped at 5/01 (34.4%), elevated in near-term weeks (27-31%).
Spot vs MP: Below max pain by 1.3% (spot $246.63 vs MP $250)
GEX regime: Pinning (Total GEX +$15.2M)
OI concentrations: Major Call Walls: $280 (80K OI), $300 (52K OI). Major Put Walls: $245 (high volume/flow), $240 (41K OI Call).
#1put spread
Sell $245/$240 Put Spread for 5/01 Expiration (33 DTE)
Max pain is $250, providing a magnet above. The $245 strike has massive put volume (32.5K) and is just below spot, offering strong support. The 5/01 expiration captures the IV hump (34.4%) for superior premium. The spread is outside the 33-day expected move low ($226.48).
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Roll down/out if AAPL closes below $245. Exit entirely on a close below $242.50.
#2iron condor
Sell $240 Put / Sell $260 Call for 4/24 Expiration (26 DTE). Use $235/$265 wings.
Pinning regime favors range-bound action. Short strikes ($240/$260) are outside the 26-day expected move ($230.56 - $262.71) and align with key OI levels ($240 call OI, $260 call wall). Positive GEX suppresses large moves. High probability of success.
Mgmt: Close either leg at 50% max profit. Manage the tested side independently (roll untested wing in). Close entire position if spot breaches a short strike.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $235 Put for 6/18 Expiration (81 DTE)
For capital-secure sellers willing to take assignment. The $235 strike is below major support (6/18 max pain $240) and 4.7% below spot. It collects rich premium from 32.5% IV with ample time decay. High OI at $240 provides a buffer.
Mgmt: Roll down/out at 21 DTE if strike is threatened (spot < $240). Close at 70% profit. Be prepared to accept shares at $235.
#4call credit spread
Sell $260/$265 Call Spread for 4/17 Expiration (19 DTE)
Defined-risk bearish hedge. The $260 short call is at the top of the 19-day expected move ($260.26) and aligns with a call wall. Positive GEX and distant $280/$300 call OI cap upside momentum. Net premium flow is negative for calls above $260, suggesting selling pressure.
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Exit if AAPL closes above $260. Do not hold through earnings (4/30).
!Earnings estimated 4/30 — DO NOT sell naked options through this event. Exit or roll all short premium positions before 4/23.
!Spot is below max pain ($250). This adds a slight upward magnetic pull but indicates recent selling pressure. Watch the $245-$250 zone.
!Negative Premium Flow at $245 and $247.50 strikes. Heavy put buying near spot suggests institutional downside hedging; respect the $245 support.
!Unusual Activity: High-volume put buying in weekly $245 and $242.50 strikes, indicating near-term bearish bets and potential for increased pinning volatility.
!Positive GEX (+$15.2M) pinning regime can reverse if spot breaks below key support ($245), leading to accelerated selling as dealers hedge.
!IV is normal, not high. Premiums are fair but not extravagant. Avoid over-leveraging.