Term structure: Humped near-term (peaks ~62% in Apr/May), sloping down to ~55% by summer
Spot vs MP: Above max pain by 3.2% ($10.84 vs $10)
GEX regime: Trending (GEX -$59.6M — pro-cyclical)
Gamma flip: ~$10.00 — Below $10, negative GEX accelerates moves down
OI concentrations: Massive put wall at $10 (OI > 103K), secondary at $8 (OI > 66K). Call wall at $12 (OI ~40K).
#1put spread
Sell $10/$9 put spread 2026-05-01 (29 DTE)
Places short strike directly at the massive $10 OI support wall. High IV (60%) provides excellent credit for a $1-wide spread. 29 DTE aligns with peak IV hump. Max loss is defined and limited to the width minus credit.
Mgmt: Close at 65-75% profit. Exit entire position if AAL closes below $10 (gamma flip). Do not roll for a debit.
#2iron condor
Sell $9.5/$9P x $12/$12.5C 2026-04-24 (22 DTE)
Capitalizes on high near-term IV (61.7%) and defined range between major OI clusters. Short puts are below key $10 support, short calls are above the $12 call wall. 22 DTE for faster theta decay in a weekly-like structure.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Exit one side if spot breaches the short strike. Do not hold through earnings on 4/23.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $9 put 2026-06-18 (77 DTE)
For sellers comfortable with assignment. Strike is below the gamma flip and major support, offering a 17% buffer. High IV yields >15% annualized return on capital for a put 17% OTM. Longer DTE allows more time for recovery if tested.
Mgmt: Roll down/out for a credit if put is tested (price < $9.50). Close at 80% profit. Be prepared to take assignment at $9 if necessary.
#4covered call
Sell $12 call 2026-05-15 (43 DTE) against 100 shares
High IV (56.9%) provides excellent call premium. Strike is above the $12 call wall and near the 43 DTE expected move upper bound ($12.55). Provides ~11% upside capture plus premium. Suitable for existing shareholders seeking income.
Mgmt: Close call at 80% profit. Consider rolling up and out if share price approaches $11.80. Be mindful of ex-dividend date (none imminent).
!Earnings estimated 2026-04-23 — CLOSE all short premium positions before this announcement. Never sell naked through earnings.
!Gamma regime is TRENDING (GEX -$59.6M). Moves can accelerate, especially below $10 gamma flip. Manage positions aggressively.
!Massive $10 put OI (103,857) is both support and a potential 'break the wall' target. A close below $10 could trigger accelerated selling.
!Flow regime is Bearish (net prem -$1.8M, P/C 1.25). This aligns with the negative GEX and suggests institutional put buying.
!Unusual activity in weekly calls ($10.50 strike) indicates potential for a short-term squeeze, but this is noise against the dominant bearish flow.