AAL Flow Report

Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

7 / 10

base 5; +1 bearish flow regime (P/C 1.25, net prem -$1.8M); +1 spot reversal below key gamma flip; +0.5 negative GEX aligns with new bearish flow; -0.5 high IV may exaggerate moves

Watch next session: Defense of the $10.00 put wall; Flow in the $10.50-$11.00 strike zone; Any large block trades in the 4/10 or 4/17 expirations

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$1.8M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 1.25 — put-dominant

P/C OI ratio: 1.59 — heavy legacy put positioning

A clear reversal from the prior bullish flow regime. Net premium flipped negative with put volume dominating, suggesting institutional sentiment turned defensive as spot failed to hold above the critical gamma flip level.

Notable Prints

AAL 4/2/26 $10.50 Call

Vol: 11,861

OI: 5,814

Vol/OI: 2.0x

IV: 75.0%

Notional: ~$62,000

Intent: Likely closing/selling of near-expiration calls

Dual read: Sold to close (bulls taking profit/giving up) or bought (last-minute lottery ticket)

Read-through: With spot at $10.84, these $10.50 calls are ITM. High volume vs. OI on expiration day is classic closing activity. This represents the unwinding of prior bullish bets, aligning with the bearish flow shift.

AAL 4/10/26 $11.00 Put

Vol: 3,386

OI: 2,140

Vol/OI: 1.6x

IV: 58.2%

Notional: ~$37,000

Intent: New protective put buying or bearish speculation

Dual read: Bought to open (bearish) or sold (neutral/bullish, writing puts)

Read-through: This is meaningful new put flow just above spot ($10.84) with 8 days to expiry. The elevated IV and volume/OI ratio suggest new positioning, likely a hedge against a drop below $11 or a direct bearish bet.

AAL 4/2/26 $7.00 Call

Vol: 458

OI: 142

Vol/OI: 3.2x

IV: 878.1%

Notional: ~$320

Intent: Expiration day lottery ticket or spread leg

Dual read: Bought (near-zero probability bet) or sold (closing)

Read-through: Extreme IV and deep OTM strike on expiry day. Economically insignificant notional; this is noise, not a directional signal.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minimal. Top premium strikes are legacy ($12, $10.50, $5 calls). New flow shows call closing, not opening.

Put additions: New interest in $11.00 puts (4/10) and continued large premium at far OTM strikes ($17-$18).

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — Negative GEX (-$59.6M) in a trending regime is now aligned with bearish flow, suggesting downside moves could accelerate.

OI clusters: Massive $10.00 Put wall remains (OI > 280K). $8.00 Put wall (OI > 108K). $12.00 Call/Put cluster (~40K OI each).

Hedging evidence: Strong evidence remains. The giant $10 and $8 put walls are the dominant structural feature. New $11 put flow suggests hedging is being moved closer to spot.

Max pain context: Spot ($10.84) is now much closer to the immediate max pain ($10.00 for 3/27, $11.00 for 4/2). The falling MP trend across expirations and spot's failure to hold above $11 suggests gravity is pulling price toward the massive put OI concentrations.

Signal vs Noise

~Large put premium at $18, $18.50, $16.50, $17, $25: These far OTM strikes (60-130% below spot) are still tail-risk hedging or part of complex spreads, not new directional bearish bets.

~$10.50 Call volume (4/2 expiry): High volume on expiration day is overwhelmingly closing activity, not new bullish positioning.

~$7.00 Call volume (4/2): Lottery ticket noise due to expiration and extreme IV.

Key Conclusions

🔄Flow Regime Reversal: From strongly bullish (3/31) to bearish today. Net premium flipped negative and P/C ratio turned put-dominant, indicating a swift shift in institutional sentiment.

⚔️Battle Shifts to Defense: The prior bullish attack on $11-$12 has failed. New flow is defensive (closing calls, adding $11 puts), with price now testing down toward the massive $10 put fortress.

📉GEX Alignment is Bearish: Negative GEX (-$59.6M) in a trending regime now works with the bearish flow, increasing the risk of an accelerated move lower if the $10 support breaks.

🧱$10.00 is the Final Bull Line: The colossal put OI at $10 represents the ultimate support. A break below this gamma flip level would likely trigger significant dealer hedging (selling) and open a path to $8.

Read the Flow analysis for AAL. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.