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AAL

American Airlines Group, Inc.Close $12.95EOD only
Max Pain
$12.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.52
4.0% from close
Price Gap
-0.45
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
38
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.86
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AAL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
AAL Flow Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
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You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer flow report is available for April 2, 2026.

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Flow Verdict

BiasBullish
Confirmation: Sustained call buying above $11, pushing spot toward $11.50-$12 resistance. A close above $11.50 would confirm the bullish breakout.
Invalidation: Spot fails to hold above $10.50 and heavy put flow emerges at $10, signaling a rejection of the bullish move and a test of the massive put wall.
Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 strongly bullish net premium & flow; +1 spot above max pain; -0.5 high IV and negative GEX create volatility risk

Watch next session: $11.00 call OI accumulation; Any defensive put flow at $10.00; Spot action relative to gamma flip ~$10

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$1.9M bullish

P/C volume ratio: 0.49 — extremely call-dominant

P/C OI ratio: 1.60 — heavy legacy put positioning

Extremely bullish daily flow (P/C 0.49, +$1.9M net premium) is actively working against a massive, longer-term put overhang (P/C OI 1.60). This suggests new bullish bets are being placed to challenge the established defensive positioning, with a clear focus on the $11-$12 zone.

Notable Prints

#1
AAL 5/1/26 $11.50 Call
Vol: 629
OI: 266
Vol/OI: 2.4x
IV: 58.6%
Notional: ~$72,000
Intent: Fresh directional call buying
Dual read: Bought to open (bullish breakout bet) or sold/covered (neutral/bearish)

Read-through: The 2.4x volume/OI ratio and high IV point to new long calls. This is a bullish bet targeting a move above $11.50 within 31 days, aligning with the dominant call flow narrative.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Strong premium flow into $11, $12, $5, and $8 calls. The $11 strike alone saw +$2.18M net premium.

Put additions: Minimal near-term put buying. The largest put premiums are at far OTM strikes ($17-$18), likely tail-risk hedges or part of complex structures.

GEX/DEX consistency: Mixed. Flow is bullish, but GEX is negative (-$72.2M). This creates a pro-cyclical, trending regime where moves can accelerate. Bullish flow in negative GEX supports upside momentum.

OI clusters: Massive $10.00 Put wall (multiple listings, OI > 280K). Major $12.00 Call/Put cluster (~40K OI each). $8.00 Put wall (OI > 108K).

Hedging evidence: Yes, significant. The enormous $10 and $8 put OI represents large-scale, longer-dated protective positioning. The bullish daily flow is attempting to push price away from these hedges.

Max pain context: Spot ($10.74) is above immediate max pain ($10.00), which is supportive. However, max pain trends lower across expirations, indicating option positioning favors a drift down, which the current bullish flow is contesting.

Signal vs Noise

~Large put premium at $25, $17, $18, $17.50, $16.50: These are far OTM (50-100%+ below spot). The notional is meaningful but the strikes are extreme. This is likely tail-risk hedging, portfolio protection, or part of put spreads/collars, not a direct bearish bet on AAL.
~High volume in $5 and $8 calls: While the net premium is bullish, buying deep ITM calls is often a delta-equivalent to stock with leverage or a financing trade, not a pure volatility/direction bet.
~Low volume vs. massive OI at key strikes (e.g., $10P vol=895, OI=103,724): This indicates the dominant positioning is legacy, not new. Today's flow is not adding to these walls.

Key Conclusions

⚔️Battle lines drawn: Bullish flow vs. Bearish OI. New call buyers are attacking the $11-$12 zone against a fortress of puts at $10 and $8.
🚀Flow regime is strongly bullish. Net premium +$1.9M and P/C 0.49 show clear institutional buying interest for upside.
🧲$10 is the critical level. It's a massive put wall (gamma flip ~$10) and max pain. Holding above it is key for bulls.
⚠️Negative GEX (-$72.2M) in a trending regime means moves can accelerate. Bullish flow here could fuel a sharp rally if $11 breaks.
How to Use These Reports
This flow reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.