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AAL

American Airlines Group, Inc.Close $12.95EOD only

Max Pain

$12.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.52

4.0% from close

Price Gap

-0.45

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.86

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AAL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

AAL Theta Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer theta report is available for April 2, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

7 / 10

base 5; +2 high IV; +1 liquid; -1 trending regime

IV Environment

IV Regime

High

IV vs VIX

IV 59.2% — extremely elevated for a large cap

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Humped near-term (62-64% for Apr/May), sloping down to ~56% by summer

💰IV >50% is a premium seller's dream — rich time value

📉IV term structure backwardated after May — favors shorter DTE

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above max pain by 2.3% ($10.74 vs $10)

GEX regime: Trending (GEX -$72.2M — pro-cyclical)

Gamma flip: ~$10.00 — Below $10, negative GEX accelerates moves down

OI concentrations: Massive put wall at $10 (OI > 103K), call wall at $12 (OI ~40K)

Verdict: Mixed — strong OI support at $10, but negative GEX warns against complacency

Premium Opportunities

put spread

Sell $10/$9 put spread 2026-05-01 (31 DTE)

Places short strike at the massive $10 OI support wall. High IV provides juicy credit for a $1-wide spread. 31 DTE aligns with peak IV hump. Max loss is defined and manageable.

Credit: $0.25-$0.35

Max loss: $0.65

BE: $9.70

Mgmt: Close at 65-75% profit. Exit entire position if AAL closes below $10 (gamma flip). Roll only if credit >0.30 can be collected for same strikes further out.

covered call

Sell $12 call 2026-05-15 (45 DTE) against 100 shares

High IV provides excellent call premium. Strike is above the $12 call wall and near the 45 DTE expected move upper bound ($12.51). Provides ~12% upside capture plus premium. Suitable for existing shareholders.

Credit: $0.35-$0.45

Mgmt: Close call at 80% profit. Consider rolling up and out if share price approaches $11.80. Be mindful of ex-dividend date (none imminent).

iron condor

Sell $9.5/$9P x $12/$12.5C 2026-04-24 (24 DTE)

Capitalizes on high IV and defined range between major OI clusters ($10P, $12C). Short puts are below key support, short calls are above key resistance. 24 DTE for faster theta decay in a weekly-like structure.

Credit: $0.18-$0.25

Max loss: $0.32

BE: 9.32 / 12.18

Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Exit one side if spot breaches the short strike. Do not hold through earnings on 4/23.

cash-secured put

Sell $9 put 2026-06-18 (79 DTE)

For sellers comfortable with assignment. Strike is below the gamma flip and major support, offering a 16% buffer. High IV yields >10% annualized return on capital for a put 8% OTM. Longer DTE allows more time for recovery if tested.

Credit: $0.85-$1.05

BE: $8.15

Mgmt: Roll down/out for a credit if put is tested (price < $9.50). Close at 80% profit. Be prepared to take assignment at $9 if necessary.

Risk Alerts

!Earnings estimated 2026-04-23 — CLOSE all short premium positions before this announcement. Never sell naked through earnings.

!Gamma regime is TRENDING (GEX -$72.2M). Moves can accelerate, especially below $10. Manage positions aggressively.

!Massive $10 put OI (103,724) is both support and a potential 'break the wall' target for sellers if sentiment sours.

!Flow is net bullish (+$1.9M prem, P/C 0.49), but this is a contrary indicator at extremes for a stock like AAL.

!Historical earnings are volatile with large surprises (e.g., -0.55 last quarter). IV may not fully price this risk.

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.