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AAL

American Airlines Group, Inc.Close $12.95EOD only

Max Pain

$12.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.52

4.0% from close

Price Gap

-0.45

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.86

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AAL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

AAL Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with a strong gravitational pull toward $10-$11. Confidence: 6.5/10. Spot is above max pain, negative GEX and bearish flow align, but the massive $10 put OI wall provides a powerful magnet that may cap immediate downside.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned bearish; -0.5 spot 3.2% from MP. The $10 OI wall is a major structural support, but GEX and flow suggest pressure toward it.

Supports: Massive $10 put OI wall (103k+), GEX -$59.6M (trending), P/C vol 1.25 (bearish).
Conflicts: Spot above MP ($10.84 vs $11), but MP trend is falling. Net premium is slightly negative.

⚠️GEX -$59.6M suggests potential for sharp moves if $10 breaks.

📊$10 put OI >100k acts as a powerful magnet and support.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 64.6% — extremely high, favoring premium sellers if direction is contained.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$59.6M — negative gamma concentrated near spot, dealers hedge in direction of price movement, amplifying trends.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Net prem -$1.8M with P/C vol 1.25 — recent flow is bearish, aligning with negative GEX.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $10.84 above nearest MP $11.00 — gravity pulls toward $11, but negative GEX may resist a smooth drift.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder shows a persistent $10-$12 range across multiple expirations, and the massive $10 put OI is a structural feature. GEX sign is stable negative, and flow regime is consistent.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$10.67$11.02

Negative GEX and bearish flow pressure spot toward $10.67; a break above $11.02 invalidates near-term bearishness.

Next 1 week

$10.09$11.60

$10 OI wall and $12 call OI cap the range; negative GEX increases volatility within it.

Next 2 weeks

$9.82$11.86

Max pain pins at $11 for April expiries; flow and GEX support a test of the $10 support zone.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $10 (2026-03-27); $11 (2026-04-02); $11 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $10.67/$11.02; 1w $10.09/$11.60

Support: $10.00 · $10.00 · $5.00

Resistance: $17.00

Gamma flip: ~$10.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 103,857

Structural: **$10 Put Wall** (103k+ OI) is the dominant structural level — a break below triggers significant delta hedging. **$17 Call Wall** (40k OI) is a distant cap. The $5 put floor is likely legacy hedges.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-59.6M

DEX: +64.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$10 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 103,857)

NTM gamma: Negative GEX concentrated near spot. If spot moves +2% toward $11.06, dealers sell shares to hedge, amplifying the move. If spot moves -2% toward $10.62, hedging pressure increases, but the $10 OI wall may cause intense pinning.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 64.6% — extremely elevated, indicating high single-stock risk premium. Selling premium has high nominal edge if direction is contained.

Term structure: Humped: near-term (0d-8d) IV spikes to 57-58%, dips slightly, then rises into 4/24 (61.7%) for earnings pricing, then decays. Supports selling near-term vol against longer-dated.

Skew: High near-term IV vs. 45+ DTE (~5-8 vol points cheaper) creates a calendar spread edge. The 4/10 expiry (57.8% IV) vs 6/18 (55.2%) offers a ~2.6 vol-pt differential.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$1.8M bearish; P/C vol 1.25 shows recent put dominance.

Directional prints: $10.50C 4/2 vol 11,861 vs OI 5,814 (2.0x) — could be bought calls for a bounce or sold calls for income; bearish flow context favors sold calls. $11P 4/10 vol 3,386 vs OI 2,140 (1.6x) — likely bought puts for downside protection.

Unusual: $7C 4/2 vol 458 vs OI 142 (3.2x) at IV 878% — likely a speculative lottery ticket or a hedge roll.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $10 triggers massive negative delta hedge from put sellers, accelerating sell-off.

!Negative GEX regime means any directional move gains momentum quickly.

!Earnings on 4/23 priced with IV spike to 61.7% for 4/24 expiry — vol crush risk post-event.

!High absolute IV (64.6%) means long premium strategies face significant theta decay.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	N/A	Negative GEX and $10 break risk; better to sell premium against shares.
Short stock	Moderate	N/A	Strong $10 support provides headwinds; better expressed via puts.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $11.5C 4/10 or $12C 4/17.	Capped upside; stock decline.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate	Sell $10/$9.5 put spread 4/17 (targeting OI wall).	$10 break.
Long calls	Weak	$11C 4/10 (high IV decay).	High IV decay; bearish flow and GEX.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy $10.5P / sell $9.5P 4/10 (within EM bounds).	Strong pin at $10; time decay.
Iron condor	Moderate	$9.5/$10P x $11.5/$12C 4/17 (within EM bounds).	Negative GEX increases breakout odds.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell $11C 4/24 (IV 61.7%), buy $11C 6/18 (IV 55.2%) — reverse calendar for credit.	Earnings move on 4/23.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $10C 1/2027 (~$2.00 est), sell $11.5C 4/10 (~$0.20 est) against it.	Capital intensive; stock stagnation.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy $10.5P / Sell $9.5P, Exp 4/10

Directly expresses the bearish GEX and flow regime, targeting a move toward the $10 support. High IV provides relatively cheap long premium entry. Defined risk below key support.

Debit: $0.35-$0.45

Max loss: $0.50

BE: $10.05

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of max profit. Exit if spot closes above $11.02 (2d EM high).

Traders with a bearish bias seeking defined risk.

Reverse Calendar Spread

Sell $11 Call 4/24, Buy $11 Call 6/18

Capitalizes on the steep IV term structure hump (sell 61.7% IV, buy 55.2% IV) for a net credit. Benefits from vol crush after earnings (4/23) and time decay on the short leg, while maintaining longer-dated upside exposure. The 30+ DTE long leg provides time for the thesis to play out.

Credit: $0.15-$0.25

Max loss: Varies (width of strikes minus credit)

BE: Complex (depends on vol change)

Mgmt: Close short leg after earnings vol crush (target 50% max profit). Manage if spot rallies sharply past $12.

Traders wanting to sell rich near-term vol with defined risk.

Covered Call

Own stock, Sell $11.5 Call 4/10

Generates high premium in a high IV, range-bound environment. Aligns with the neutral-to-bearish outlook by providing downside cushion and capping upside at a resistance level ($11.5). Better than a naked short call due to stock ownership providing some downside buffer.

Credit: $0.20-$0.30

Max loss: Unlimited below stock purchase price

BE: Stock purchase price minus credit

Mgmt: Roll up/out if challenged. Consider closing if spot drops below $10.20.

Existing shareholders looking to generate income.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot tags $10.25 and holds for 1 hour → Enter bull put spread: Sell $10 / Buy $9.5 Put 4/17.

IFSpot rallies to $11.30 (testing 1w EM high) → Sell $11.5 Call 4/10 (or buy bear put spread $11/$10.5P 4/10).

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $9.95 → Exit all short premium positions (put spreads, calendars).

EXITPost-earnings (4/24), IV on short calendar leg drops 15 points → Buy back short $11C 4/24 to lock in calendar profit.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Range-bound between $10 (massive put OI) and $12 (call wall) within a negative GEX regime that amplifies moves, with a near-term bearish lean. Favors selling premium at range extremes and using defined-risk directional plays. Top plays: 1) Bear put spread (bet on drift to $10), 2) Reverse calendar (sell earnings vol), 3) Covered call (income for shareholders). Invalidation is a close below $10.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.