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AAL

American Airlines Group, Inc.Close $12.95EOD only

Max Pain

$12.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.52

4.0% from close

Price Gap

-0.45

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.86

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AAL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

AAL Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer directional report is available for April 2, 2026.

View latest report

Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with a strong gravitational pull toward $10-$11. Confidence: 4/10. Spot is above max pain, but negative GEX and a massive put OI wall at $10 create a conflicted, range-bound environment with a slight downward bias.

Confidence:

4 / 10

base 4; +1 for strong pinning signal at $10; -1 for contradictory GEX/flow (GEX negative, net premium positive).

Supports: Massive $10 put OI wall (103k+), P/C volume 0.49 (call-heavy), net premium +$1.9M.
Conflicts: GEX -$72.2M (trending/accelerating), spot above max pain, P/C OI 1.60 (put-heavy structure).

⚠️GEX -$72.2M suggests potential for sharp moves if $10 breaks.

📊$10 put OI >100k acts as a powerful magnet.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 59.2% — extremely high, favoring premium sellers if range holds.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$72.2M — negative gamma concentrated near spot, dealers hedge in direction of price movement, amplifying trends.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net prem +$1.9M with P/C vol 0.49 — recent flow is bullish, but long-term OI is put-heavy.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $10.74 above nearest MP $10.50 — gravity pulls toward $10-$11, but negative GEX may resist a smooth drift.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder shows a persistent $10-$12 range across multiple expirations, and the massive $10 put OI is a structural feature, not a one-week pin. GEX sign is stable negative.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$10.06$11.42

Negative GEX and proximity to $10 put wall create downside pressure; break above $11.42 invalidates.

Next 1 week

$9.68$11.79

$10 OI wall and $12 call OI cap the range; negative GEX increases volatility within it.

Next 2 weeks

$9.48$12.00

Max pain rises to $11-$12 for April expiries; flow supports, but $10 remains key support.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $10 (2026-03-27); $11 (2026-04-02); $11 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $10.06/$11.42; 1w $9.68/$11.79

Support: $10.00 · $10.00 · $5.00

Resistance: $12.00

Gamma flip: ~$10.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 103,724

Structural: **$10 Put Wall** (103k+ OI) is the dominant structural level — a break below triggers significant delta hedging. **$12 Call Wall** (39k OI) caps upside. Distant $5 puts are likely legacy hedges.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-72.2M

DEX: +65.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$10 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 103,724)

NTM gamma: Negative GEX concentrated near spot. If spot moves +2%, dealers sell shares to hedge, amplifying the move. If spot moves -2% toward $10.50, hedging pressure increases, but the $10 OI wall may cause a 'gamma trap' and intense pinning.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 59.2% — extremely elevated, indicating high single-stock risk premium. Selling premium has high nominal edge if direction is contained.

Term structure: Humped: near-term (2d-10d) IV ~62%, dips at 17d (60.8%), rises at 24d (64.1% — likely earnings pricing for 4/23), then decays. Supports selling near-term vol against longer-dated.

Skew: High near-term IV vs. 45+ DTE (~5-7 vol points cheaper) creates a calendar spread edge. The $11.50C 5/01 showed unusual activity (vol 629 vs OI 266).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$1.9M bullish; P/C vol 0.49 shows recent call dominance.

Directional prints: $11C saw $2.2M net premium (likely bought calls for upside). $25P saw $309k net premium (likely sold far OTM puts for income).

Unusual: $11.50C 5/01 vol 629 vs OI 266 (2.4x) at IV 58.6% — could be a fresh long call or a covered call roll; given net bullish flow, long call is more consistent.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $10 triggers massive negative delta hedge from put sellers, accelerating sell-off.

!Negative GEX regime means any directional move gains momentum quickly.

!Earnings on 4/23 priced with IV spike to 64.1% for 4/24 expiry — vol crush risk post-event.

!High absolute IV (59%) means long premium strategies face significant theta decay.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	N/A	Negative GEX and $10 break risk; better to sell premium against shares.
Short stock	Moderate	N/A	Strong $10 support and bullish flow provide headwinds; better expressed via puts.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $12C 4/17 or 5/15.	Capped upside; stock decline.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $10/$9.5 put spread 4/17 (targeting OI wall).	$10 break.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	$11.50C 5/01 (unusual flow).	High IV decay; range-bound price action.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy $10.5P / sell $9.5P 4/10.	Strong pin at $10; time decay.
Iron condor	Moderate	$9.5/$10P x $11.5/$12C 4/17 (within EM bounds).	Negative GEX increases breakout odds; VIX not applicable for single stock.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate	Sell $11C 4/24 (IV 64.1%), buy $11C 6/18 (IV 54.7%) — reverse calendar for credit.	Earnings move on 4/23.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy $10C 1/2027, sell $12C 4/17 or 5/15 against it.	Capital intensive; stock stagnation.

Top Plays

Reverse Calendar Spread

Sell $11 Call 4/24, Buy $11 Call 6/18

Capitalizes on the steep IV term structure hump (sell 64% IV, buy 55% IV) for a net credit. Benefits from vol crush after earnings (4/23) and time decay on the short leg, while maintaining longer-dated upside exposure.

Credit: $0.15-$0.25

Max loss: Varies (width of strikes minus credit)

BE: Complex (depends on vol change)

Mgmt: Close short leg after earnings vol crush (target 50% max profit). Manage if spot rallies sharply past $12.

Traders wanting to sell rich near-term vol with defined risk.

Bull Put Spread

Sell $10 Put / Buy $9.5 Put, Exp 4/17

Targets the strong $10 put OI magnet for premium collection. High IV provides attractive credit. Defined risk below the key support level.

Credit: $0.18-$0.25

Max loss: $0.32

BE: $9.82

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit. Exit if $10 is breached on a closing basis.

Defined-risk traders with a neutral-to-bullish bias, believing $10 holds.

PMCC (Diagonal)

Buy $10 Call 1/2027 (~$2.00 est), Sell $12 Call 5/15 (~$0.30 est)

The 30+ DTE long call captures the multi-week range drift toward $11-$12 with low time decay. The short call monetizes high near-term IV. This is better than a near-term long call because it reduces theta burn and provides multiple premium-selling opportunities.

Debit: $1.70-$1.80

Max loss: $1.70

BE: $11.70

Mgmt: Roll short call up/out if challenged. Close entire position if $10 support fails.

Investors with a multi-month bullish view and larger capital, looking to reduce cost basis.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot dips to $10.25 and holds for 1 hour → Enter bull put spread: Sell $10 / Buy $9.5 Put 4/17.

IFIV on 4/24 expiry spikes above 67% (pre-earnings) → Initiate reverse calendar: Sell $11C 4/24, Buy $11C 6/18.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $9.95 → Exit all short premium positions (put spreads, calendars).

EXITPost-earnings (4/24), IV on short calendar leg drops 15 points → Buy back short $11C 4/24 to lock in calendar profit.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Range-bound between $10 (massive put OI) and $12 (call wall) within a negative GEX regime that amplifies moves. Favors selling premium at range extremes and using calendar spreads to exploit rich near-term vol. Top plays: 1) Reverse calendar (sell earnings vol), 2) Bull put spread (bet on $10 hold), 3) PMCC (longer-term bullish drift). Invalidation is a close below $10.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.