WMT Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

4.5 / 10

base 5; -0.5 mixed flow regime; -0.5 P/C ratio >1.2; +0.5 GEX pinning regime aligned with flow

Watch next session: $124 Put flow for 4/2 expiry; Any call buying to defend the $125 level

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$9.4M (mixed, slightly bullish by value)

P/C volume ratio: 1.28 — put-dominant volume

P/C OI ratio: 1.24 — moderate put lean in positioning

A conflicting picture: positive net premium suggests bullish premium paid, but put volume and open interest dominate, indicating underlying hedging or bearish positioning. The flow is mixed with a defensive tilt.

Notable Prints

WMT 4/2 $124 Put

Vol: 3,059

OI: 1,156

Vol/OI: 2.6x

IV: 24.0%

Notional: ~$379,000 (3059 * $124 * 100)

Intent: Short-term directional hedge or bearish bet

Dual read: Bought for protection (defensive) or sold for premium (neutral/bullish)

Read-through: High volume in a near-dated, near-the-money put suggests traders are actively positioning for a move below $124 before this Friday's expiry. The low IV (24%) suggests this is not a volatility bet, but a price-direction play.

WMT 4/24 $113 Put

Vol: 1,165

OI: 131

Vol/OI: 8.9x

IV: 32.8%

Notional: ~$131,600 (1165 * $113 * 100)

Intent: New downside protection or speculative put buying

Dual read: Bought as a longer-dated hedge (bearish) or sold as part of a spread (neutral/bullish)

Read-through: The high volume-to-OI ratio indicates a new, meaningful position. The $113 strike is well below spot (~9% lower) and aligns with the large OI cluster at $115. This could be a hedge against a breakdown toward the gamma flip zone.

WMT 4/10 $124 Call

Vol: 807

OI: 362

Vol/OI: 2.2x

IV: 25.7%

Notional: ~$100,000 (807 * $124 * 100)

Intent: Short-term call buying to play a bounce or defend a level

Dual read: Bought for a directional move (bullish) or sold against a position (neutral/bearish)

Read-through: This is the most notable call flow. It's a counter-trend play against the dominant put volume, potentially betting on a hold of the $124 level or a move toward the $125 max pain for the 4/10 expiry.

WMT 4/17 $105 Call

Vol: 182

OI: 105

Vol/OI: 1.7x

IV: 54.0%

Notional: ~$19,100 (182 * $105 * 100)

Intent: Lottery ticket or spread leg

Dual read: Bought as a cheap, high-risk/high-reward bet (bullish) or sold as part of a complex structure (neutral)

Read-through: The extremely high IV (54%) for a deep OTM call suggests this is a low-cost, speculative bet. Its small notional value makes it noise in the broader flow, but it indicates some retail or speculative interest in a major upside move.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minimal near-term. Notable OI in $130-$140 calls, but these are likely older, longer-dated positions.

Put additions: Significant OI clusters at $115, $110, $105, and $100 puts. Today's flow adds to near-term ($124P) and mid-term ($113P) downside exposure.

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — Positive GEX of $13.8M indicates a pinning/mean-reverting regime, which aligns with the mixed, range-bound flow and spot hovering just above max pain.

OI clusters: Major Put Wall: $115 (25,686 OI). Major Call Wall: $135 (20,204 OI). This creates a wide expected range between $115 and $135.

Hedging evidence: Strong evidence of longer-dated, far OTM put hedging (clusters at $105, $100, $90). The $113 put print for 4/24 adds to this defensive posture.

Max pain context: Spot ($124.28) is above near-term max pain ($121 for 3/27, $123 for 4/2). The pinning GEX and flow suggest price may drift toward these levels, supporting a neutral-to-slightly bearish near-term bias.

Signal vs Noise

~The massive net premium from deep OTM calls ($45, $70, $75 strikes) is almost certainly noise—likely the result of large, existing long-dated positions being rolled or adjusted. These are not new directional bets.

~The $105 Call for 4/17 is a lottery ticket due to its tiny notional and extreme IV; it should not be interpreted as a meaningful bullish signal.

~Some of the put volume, especially in near-dated expiries, could be part of covered put writes or collars given the stock's steady, dividend-paying nature, rather than outright bearish bets.

Key Conclusions

⚖️Flow is mixed but leans defensive: Positive net premium conflicts with put-dominant volume and OI.

📌GEX pinning regime suggests range-bound action, with spot likely drawn toward near-term max pain ($121-$123).

🛡️Institutional positioning shows heavy long-dated put hedging, indicating a cautious underlying stance despite the stable price.

👁️Watch the $124-$125 zone: Battle between near-dated put flow ($124P) and call flow ($124C) will dictate short-term direction.

Read the Flow analysis for WMT. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.