base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 61.8% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18; override: Base 7.5, GEX+2, VIX tailwind, but pinning and elevated risk reduce appeal
Term structure: Front-end IV inflated by pinning; 1d put IV 467% vs call 332%; term structure rises then flattens near 100%
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Pinning ($+8.2M)
Gamma flip: ~$500.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,706 (29.8% below spot)
OI concentrations: Put floor $400-$500; call wall $800-$800; gamma flip ~$500
#1Call calendar
Sell 2026-07-17 $710.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $710.00 call
Front-month premium vs back-month, avoiding pin risk.
Mgmt: Exit if spot drops below $500 gamma flip.
#2PMCC / LEAPS diagonal
Buy 2026-11-20 $700.00 call + sell 2026-07-24 $730.00 call
Buy LEAPS, sell short-term call for income.
Mgmt: Roll short call if challenged. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.
!Extreme front-end put skew; 1d put IV 467%
!Gamma flip at $500; breach could accelerate moves
!Spot 61.8% above max pain, mean reversion risk