Term structure: Humped at 4/17 (58.4%) and 5/01 (55.4%), normal elsewhere
Spot vs MP: At max pain $28 (spot $27.46)
GEX regime: Trending (GEX -$143.7M)
Gamma flip: ~$20.00 — Gamma flip ~$20, far below spot. Negative GEX suggests dealers amplify moves, increasing volatility.
OI concentrations: Massive put wall at $20 (193K OI), $27 (123K OI), $23 (61K OI). Call wall at $31 (41K OI), $30 (39K OI).
#1put spread
Sell $25/$23 put spread 5/15 (45 DTE)
Strikes chosen at major OI support levels ($25, $23). 45 DTE targets optimal theta decay. Normal IV (25%) provides fair premium. Max pain and OI provide a floor near $27, giving the spread a buffer.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit (~$0.29 credit). Roll if $25 tested (move strikes down $1). Exit on sustained close below $25.00.
#2iron condor
Sell $25/$23P x $30/$32C 6/18 (79 DTE)
Wide range defined by strong OI: puts at $25/$23, calls at $30/$31. 79 DTE allows time for management. Expected move ±$2.21 (8.1%) is within the $25-$30 range. Collects premium from both sides in a pinning-favorable environment.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Manage wings independently: roll tested side out in time and width. Exit entire position if spot breaches either short strike by more than $0.50.
#3covered call
Own stock at ~$27.5, sell $30 call 5/15 (45 DTE)
For existing shareholders. Call sold at major OI resistance ($30). Provides 1.5%+ monthly income (extrapolated) with a 9.1% upside to call strike. Spot is at max pain, supporting a range-bound thesis.
Mgmt: Roll up and out if call is tested (e.g., to $31 strike in next month). Consider taking assignment at $30 if bullish, otherwise buy to close at 80% profit.
#4put spread
Sell $26/$24 put spread 4/17 (17 DTE)
Shorter-term play targeting elevated IV (58.4% on 4/17). Higher IV = richer premium. Strikes below current spot and near-term max pain ($27). Defined risk in a potentially volatile weekly expiration.
Mgmt: Close at 75% profit quickly due to high theta decay. Do not hold through expiration; close by 4/16. Exit if $26 breached.
!Earnings estimated 5/07 — Close all short premium positions before 5/01 to avoid earnings IV crush and gap risk.
!Negative GEX (-$143.7M) indicates a trending/accelerating regime. Be prepared for larger-than-expected moves that may test strikes faster.
!Massive $20 put wall (193K OI) is a major support level. A break below $25 could lead to a swift move toward $20.
!High Put/Call Volume Ratio (5.03) shows strong put buying sentiment, a potential warning of bearish pressure.
!Unusual activity: Large 9/18 $21 put block (46K vol) suggests institutional hedging or bearish positioning far out in time.
!IV term structure hump in April/May — selling premium in those weeks captures high IV but be mindful of accelerating theta decay post-earnings.