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WBD

Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. - Close $27.42EOD only

Max Pain

$27.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.85

3.1% from close

Price Gap

-0.42

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

2.24

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects WBD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

WBD Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Outlook

Neutral with a slight bearish drift bias, anchored near $27. Confidence: 5/10. Spot is pinned at max pain, but significant negative GEX and heavy put flow create a fragile equilibrium with downside risk.

Confidence:

5 / 10

base 5; +1 spot at MP; -1 GEX/flow contradiction (GEX negative, flow mixed); -1 high P/C ratios; +1 deep OI providing stability.

Supports: Spot at max pain ($27.50), deep put OI at $20-$27, DEX +38.3M shares (dealer long delta).
Conflicts: GEX -$143.7M (trending regime), P/C volume 5.03 (extreme put skew), net premium only +$1.9M despite bullish spot.

⚠️P/C Volume 5.03 is extreme — retail/hedging panic or major protective positioning.

📌Spot pinned exactly at weekly max pain ($27.50).

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 31% — Normal regime. Not cheap, but not extreme; selling premium requires careful strike selection.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$143.7M — Trending regime. Dealers are net short gamma, amplifying moves away from current spot.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow: Mixed — Extreme put volume (P/C 5.03) conflicts with net positive premium and call OI at strikes like $16.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot vs MP: At — Spot $27.46 is within pennies of the 3/27 and 4/02 max pain of $27.50, creating a strong pin.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder trends from $28 to $27 across the front 4 months, and negative GEX is a structural feature across expirations, suggesting the bearish drift pressure persists beyond a single weekly pin.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$27.24$27.68

Max pain and EM guardrails ($27.24-$27.68) dominate. Break below $27.24 triggers negative GEX amplification.

Next 1 week

$26.92$28.00

Next week's MP at $27.00 and 1w EM low of $26.92 are targets. Upside capped by $28.00 EM high.

Next 2 weeks

$25.98$28.94

2w EM low is key support. Negative GEX and put-heavy flow increase odds of testing lower bound.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $28 (2026-03-27); $28 (2026-04-02); $27 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $27.24/$27.68; 1w $26.92/$28.00

Support: $20.00 · $27.00 · $27.00

Resistance: $31.00 · $30.00 · $29.00

Gamma flip: ~$20.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 193,367

Structural: Massive put OI from $20-$27 acts as a structural floor but also a gravity well. Call OI wall $29-$31 caps rallies. The $20 put (193k OI) is a distant but critical magnet.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-143.7M

DEX: +38.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$20 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 193,367)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip ~$20 is far below, meaning dealers are short gamma across the entire trading range. A move ±2% from spot ($26.90-$28.00) will see dealer hedging amplify the move (sell into rallies, buy into dips).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 31% — No direct VIX comparison provided, but term structure shows pockets of richness.

Term structure: Severely kinked: 4/17 IV 58.4% and 5/01 IV 55.4% are huge outliers vs. 4/10 at 21.5%. Prices earnings uncertainty (5/07 est.).

Skew: Massive IV differential between 4/10 (21.5%) and 4/17 (58.4%) — ~37 vol points. Supports selling the rich 4/17 vol against buying the cheap 4/10 vol (reverse calendar).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$1.9M — Slightly bullish but anemic given spot level. P/C volume 5.03 is extreme put skew; P/C OI 2.06 confirms heavy put positioning.

Directional prints: 1) $21P 9/18 vol 46k vs OI 25k — massive block, likely protective put buying or opening of long-term downside hedge. 2) $27C 5/15 vol 2.3k vs OI 1.2k — could be bullish diagonal setup or covered call roll. 3) $27C 4/10 high IV (57.6%) print — likely sold calls against stock.

Unusual: $16C saw $1.2M premium inflow — far OTM lottery ticket buying or complex spread leg.

Risks & Catalysts

!Negative GEX (-$143.7M): Any break from pin can lead to accelerated trending moves.

!Earnings vol kink (5/07): IV crush post-5/01 expiry will vaporize long premium in May contracts.

!Extreme put skew (P/C 5.03): Could indicate known, looming downside catalyst not in data.

!Gamma flip at $20 is a distant but massive risk level if breached.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long Stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at $27.46.	Negative GEX and bearish flow drift; better to sell premium against entry.
Short Stock	Moderate	Sell shares at $27.46, target $27.00.	Strong pin at $27.50 and dealer long delta (DEX +38.3M) could cause squeeze.
Covered Call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell 4/17 $28.50 Call (IV 58.4%) for ~$0.30.	Assignment risk if stock pops; capital tied in drifting stock.
Cash-Secured Put / Put Spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/10 $26.50 Put (IV 21.5%) for ~$0.20, or sell $27/$26 Put Spread.	Break below $27.00 max pain target.
Long Calls	Weak	Avoid near-term. If bullish, consider 6/18 $28 Call for longer runway.	Negative GEX, high IV in near-dates, pinning pressure.
Long Puts / Bear Put Spread	Moderate	Buy 4/10 $27 Put, sell $26 Put for debit ~$0.25. Targets drift to $27.00 MP.	Pin holds at $27.50; time decay.
Iron Condor	Moderate-Weak	$26.50/$26 Put x $28/$28.50 Call, 4/10 expiry. Collect ~$0.15.	GEX negative (trending) and VIX context unknown; prefers defined ranges.
Calendar/Diagonal	Moderate	Reverse Calendar: Sell 4/17 $27.50 Call (IV 58.4%), Buy 4/10 $27.50 Call (IV 21.5%). Credit ~$0.40.	Spot moves sharply away from $27.50; pin breaks.
PMCC / LEAPS Diagonal	Moderate	Buy 1/15 $20 Call (~$8.00), sell 4/17 $28 Call against it. Targets pin with long vol hedge.	Capital intensive; stock drift erodes LEAPS value.

Top Plays

Reverse Calendar Spread

Sell 4/17 $27.50 Call, Buy 4/10 $27.50 Call.

Capitalizes on the extreme ~37 vol-point differential between earnings-affected April expiry and the pre-earnings week. Benefits from pin at $27.50 and IV crush in the short leg after 4/10 expiry.

Credit: $0.35-$0.45

Max loss: Unlimited (capped by long call)

BE: Complex; best at pin. Profit from time decay and IV convergence.

Mgmt: Close for 50% profit after 4/10 expiry or if spot moves beyond $27.00-$28.00. Exit if pin breaks.

Traders comfortable with pinning thesis and negative gamma, seeking to harvest rich near-term vol.

Bear Put Spread (Multi-Week)

Buy 5/15 $27 Put, Sell 5/15 $25 Put.

Aligns with the multi-week bearish drift thesis (falling max pain ladder, negative GEX) and uses 45 DTE to navigate earnings. Strikes target the $27->$25 zone, avoiding the earnings IV kink in May.

Debit: $0.65-$0.75

Max loss: $0.65

BE: $26.35

Mgmt: Take 50% profit at $26.00. Exit if spot reclaims $28.00 (resistance).

Directional bears wanting defined risk and time to be right, avoiding weekly pin noise.

Cash-Secured Put (Near-Term)

Sell 4/10 $26.50 Put.

Collects premium at a key support level (above 1w EM low of $26.92) with cheap IV (21.5%). Benefits from pinning and provides a better entry for stock acquisition if assigned, near max pain target of $27.00.

Credit: $0.18-$0.22

Max loss: $26.50

BE: $26.32

Mgmt: Roll down/out if spot approaches $26.50. Close at 70% profit.

Neutral-to-bullish investors willing to own stock at $26.50, seeking income in a pinned market.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot drops to $27.00 (weekly max pain target) and holds for 1 hour → Enter Bear Put Spread: Buy 5/15 $27 Put, Sell $25 Put.

IFIf spot rallies to $28.00 (1w EM high resistance) with increased call volume → Sell 4/10 $28.50 Call (or enter reverse calendar at $28.50 strike).

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot breaks and closes below $26.50 (below 1w EM low) → Exit all short premium positions (CSPs, calendars) — negative GEX acceleration risk.

EXITIf IV on 4/17 $27.50 Call drops below 40% (crush begins) → Take profit on reverse calendar spread.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Neutral pin at $27.50 with a multi-week bearish drift bias due to negative GEX and falling max pain. Invalidation is a close below $26.50. The regime favors selling rich near-term vol (reverse calendars) and defined-risk bearish spreads. Top Plays: 1) Reverse Calendar for vol arb, 2) 45 DTE Bear Put Spread for directional drift, 3) CSP for income/stock entry.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.