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USO

United States Oil FundClose $140.92EOD only
Max Pain
$143.00
Next expiry May 27, 2026
Expected Move
±$11.12
7.9% from close
Price Gap
+2.08
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
10
Low premium
P/C OI
1.75
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Neutral tilt
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
USO AI Consensus Report
Analysis based on market close April 7, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 7, 2026. A newer ai consensus report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Conviction
5.5

out of 10

5.5 because positioning and dealer gamma favor a pin and provide an edge for selling premium, but conviction is tempered materially by concentrated institutional put buying and two near-term settlement events that can force fast re-pricing; those event-driven flows make the range outcome only moderately more likely than a forced gap.

Where Perspectives Agree

Market positioning and dealer gamma create a clear short-premium, pinning regime around the $140–$151 band — the highest-probability outcome is range-bound chop that favors defined-risk premium sales into high IV.

Where They Diverge

Flow signals and short-dated event risks create direct contradiction: institutional flow into downside protection and unusual large buys of puts suggest participants expect a directional break, which undermines the directional/theta thesis that the pin will hold; additionally, upcoming MP/settlement days (4/08–4/10) create a binary event that the earnings/event persona treats as a volatility-buying opportunity, directly opposing the premium-selling stance.

Top Trade
via theta

Sell 31d May 8 $135/$130 put spread for a net credit (defined-risk premium sale) — expected credit collectable; structure sized to withstand event-day reprices.

Key Risk

A break below $125 on heavy volume around MP/settlement (4/08–4/10) that forces dealer delta hedges to unwind — removes the gamma pin and accelerates downside toward $118, invalidating the short-premium thesis.

How to Use These Reports
This ai consensus reflects the market close on April 7, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.