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UBER

Uber Technologies, Inc.Close $74.60EOD only
Max Pain
$75.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.87
2.5% from close
Price Gap
+0.40
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
0
Low premium
P/C OI
1.18
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects UBER options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
UBER Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 5/6, ~36 days out. IV is elevated in the May 1 expiration (43.1%), creating a clear crush opportunity. Historical moves are volatile and often exceed expectations, favoring directional or long volatility strategies over pure premium selling.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1.5 for clear earnings IV kink and historical data; -0 for data quality
Most important: IV term structure shows a definitive kink at the 5/1 expiration, confirming earnings pricing. Historical moves are large and erratic, making a simple short premium play risky.
⚠️Historical EPS moves are wildly volatile. The -$0.82 miss last quarter shows significant downside risk.
📊Earnings IV clearly priced into 5/1 expiry (43.1% vs 37.6% front-month).

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal (IV 45%)
Gamma Regime
Trending (GEX -$33.5M — pro-cyclical)
Flow Regime
Bearish (net prem -$6.9M, P/C 1.21)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 2.8% (spot $71.93 vs MP $74)
Gamma flip: ~$55.00 — Below $55, negative GEX could accelerate selling pressure.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-06 (36 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 5/01 (31d): ±$6.43 (8.9%)
  • 5/08 (38d): ±$4.05 (5.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Clear kink at 5/1 expiration (43.1% IV) vs 37.6% (4/24) and 45.0% (5/8). IV elevated for earnings.

Crush estimate: ~8-10 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~35%

Skew: Flow is bearish (P/C 1.21, net premium negative), but OI is heavily concentrated in far OTM puts ($55, $60).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Data incomplete for direct EM comparison, but moves are large and volatile (e.g., +$3.53, -$0.82 surprise).

Directional bias: Mixed. Last quarter was a large miss (-$0.82), prior three were beats.

Key Levels

1$55 Gamma Flip / Major Put OI
2$73-74 (Max Pain / Recent EM)
3$80 Call OI Wall
4EM 5/1: $65 - $78

Flow Highlights

Massive net negative premium flow at OTM puts ($77.50, $95, $100).

Institutional hedging or speculative downside bets, possibly for earnings protection.

Unusual volume in 4/10 $73 Calls (2,582 vol vs 468 OI) and 4/10 $71 Puts (1,350 vol vs 713 OI).

Near-term strangle positioning, betting on a move before earnings.

Strategies

Short Iron Condor (Earnings Crush)
Sell $66/$62 PUT x $78/$81 CALL 5/01
Credit: $1.90-$2.30
Max loss: $3.10
Max gain: $2.10
BE: ~$67.40 / ~$76.46
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before earnings (late April)
Capitalizes on elevated IV at the 5/1 expiry. Strikes set just outside the expected move boundaries. High risk given historical move size.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the 8.9% expected move and IV crushes.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond short strikes; historical volatility suggests this is a real risk.
Long Straddle (Directional Volatility)
Buy $72 Straddle 5/01
Max loss: $6.43
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $65.57 / $78.43
Trigger: Enter 1-2 weeks before earnings if IV remains below 45%.
Historical EPS surprises are large and volatile. The elevated IV is priced in, but a surprise on guidance could drive a move larger than 9%.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds the 8.9% expected move.
Underperforms: Stock pins near $72 and IV crushes significantly.
Put Calendar Spread (Bearish/Buy Time)
Buy $70 Put 5/01 (IV 43.1%), Sell $70 Put 4/24 (IV 37.6%)
Max loss: Debit Paid
Max gain: Theoretical: IV crush on short leg + long leg retains value if stock drops.
BE: Complex; best if stock drops slowly after earnings.
Trigger: Enter 1 week before earnings.
Exploits the IV kink. Bearish flow and spot below max pain support a cautious downside bias. Profits from volatility decay on the short-dated option relative to the long.
Outperforms: Stock drops moderately post-earnings, causing IV on the short 4/24 put to collapse while the long 5/01 put retains value.
Underperforms: Stock rallies sharply or IV doesn't crush as expected.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: HIGH. Historical EPS surprises are extreme (+$3.53 to -$0.82). An 8.9% expected move may be insufficient.
!IV Crush: MODERATE-HIGH. Estimated 8-10 point crush is significant but not extreme; long vol strategies need a big move.
!Liquidity: GOOD. High OI and multiple strikes available.
!Gamma Risk: Trending regime (negative GEX) means moves could be amplified, especially below $55.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory on the 5/1 expiration into late April.
?Spot price action relative to the $73-74 max pain zone for the nearest expirations.
?Any unusual flow into OTM calls to balance the heavily bearish put flow.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.