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SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETFClose $745.64EOD only
Max Pain
$739.00
Next expiry May 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.62
0.8% from close
Price Gap
-6.64
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
31
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
2.48
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
4.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SPY options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
SPY AI Consensus Report
Analysis based on market close April 9, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 9, 2026. A newer ai consensus report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Conviction
6.5

out of 10

6.5 because the pin and dealer gamma create a clear short-premium edge, but alignment is imperfect: institutional flow and the concentration of near-term expiries introduce asymmetric binary risks that can quickly erase short-premium gains; without imminently resolving event risk conviction cannot be higher.

Where Perspectives Agree

Consensus is neutral-to-bullish around the $680 spot cluster: dealer pinning and balanced positioning create a short-premium-friendly environment that favors income trades while keeping upside into the mid-high $680s as the path of least resistance.

Where They Diverge

Flow and directional signals clash on tail-risk dynamics — flow shows institutional accumulation (buy-side willingness to own risk), which supports a directional push higher, while theta and dealer-gamma reasoning favor shorting premium; that buy-side accumulation undermines aggressive short-dated premium selling if institutions are front-running a breakout. Additionally, the existence of concentrated short-dated expiries creates an incompatibility: directional expects a controlled pin into the upper bound, whereas theta warns those same expiries can release violently and invalidate short-premium strategies.

Top Trade
via theta

Sell 2026-04-13 675/670 put spread for credit (expected ~0.30–0.40 credit) — defined-risk, short-dated put spread taking advantage of the pin.

Key Risk

A daily close decisively below $670 (pin broken) triggers dealer gamma unwind — causes rapid downside repricing toward the mid-$650s, spikes IV, and would invalidate short-dated short-premium positioning.

How to Use These Reports
This ai consensus reflects the market close on April 9, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.